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Hand of the Day!
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Hand of the Day!
This is a hand from Ignition, so all players are anonymous. HUD stats are only for the current session.
It’s a 3 table SNG, I’ve won some big hands, felted a couple of people, and I’ve been putting pressure on the other players so folks are getting a bit tired of me. I want to say I’m 3rd in the tournament at this point with 22 or so players left and lots of poker remaining.
7 handed table.
Blinds are 25 / 50 (meaning early in the tourney). Nowhere near bubble / ICM considerations.
I’m in the BB w/ 72 BB or 3,543 chips
and get dealt: AC AS (Nice!)
UTG Limps from a stack of 3,153
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
SB closes / Limps from a stack of 1,689 (effective stack)
Action is on me against 2 players, which means it’s time to raise it UP!
I bet 250 (5 BB) : 3x + 1 BB for each limper
UTG Calls
SB Calls
800 in the pot and we see a multi way flop:
Qs 5s 3s
As a reminder, I’m holding the As along with the Ac
Action to the SB:
His stats:
VPIP: 50%
PFR: 4%
AF: 2.3
He immediately shoves his entire 1,689 chips into the pot. Roughly 29 BB
What do you do?
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3 Replies
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Call.
If he has a flush already, you have 7 outs which wins 27.8% of the time.
You have to call 1689 to win (1689×2)+800= 1689/4178= 40% pot odds. So we don’t have direct odds to draw the nuts.
But what if he didn’t flop a flush, which happens only once every 119 times you have suited cards? Do we win 13% of the time without the nuts?
What beats us?
No three bet stat, so we’ll assume no limp/3bet range, although with a 4% RFI there could be one.
Flopped flush. 36 combos?
Well, sets all beat us. 3 combos of each. With 50/4 stats he could have all 9.
Two pairs? I doubt Q5 and Q3, Maybe 53s. 3 combos, maybe. 21 combos tops.
What do we beat?
Over pairs? Even the most passive open Aces and Kings. 0.
Top pair? 50/4 might limp AQ. Do they shove the flop? If they are sick of you they might. There are 114 combos of top pair in the GTO calling range. This is ignition, so they probably aren’t calling wide enough.
So far, we lose to 66 combos and beat over 100. Will he shove a draw? Ace 2? Ace 4? King, Jack, or Ten of spades? Every one helps us.
We win over 40% of the time easy.
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I agree this is a call.
Here’s the thing, what spades does V have that plays like this? We block all Ax of spades, and I don’t think a lot of marginal spade hands get here from the SB. So let’s be really generous, SB has maybe 4 spade combos: J10, KJ, K10, 109…and even when SB has these, why on earth are they donk shoving? Those play far better as check raises into a player from the BB that raised. It’s maybe a little less clear if villain has sets. Those hands make more sense to me with this action than flushes. I don’t think V can have QQ, but 55 and 33 make sense with this preflop action.
But even against those rare sets, we have some decent equity. So I think this is a slam dunk call, especially because it is only 29 bb. If they covered us, it would still be a call, but a little less clear.
For the record, given this action, I’d be less happy about it, and I think it is more debatable, but I’m likely still calling this shove with two red aces.
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