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Hand Read these geniuses.
Let’s do some hand reading. Write this down as we go. Maybe use some software like Flopzilla if you have it. If not, you should have Equilab, it’s free.
Blinds are 30/60 in a 3.30 ACR tourney.
I am the effective stack with 196BB.
Villain is 54/38 with a 29% 3bet over only 13 hands, and 2X opens UTG.
I don’t know if I mis-clicked or was looking for action, but I did a horrible 2.6X 3Bet to 5.22 from the BU with ???. Villain calls. Stop.
S.T.O.P. – Stop, Think, Observe, Plan.
What are our ranges?
Don’t use charts, you are watching this hand play out in real time. No RTA allowed.
WRITE THEM DOWN! Hold yourself accountable. You can check them with charts and solvers later if you do, and maybe learn that you have a leak.Flop 3h5s7s. (12.87)
Check, check. Stop. What do each of us have? What would have you done given those ranges? What do you anticipate on future streets?Since this is a 3bet pot, neither one of us should have much of this flop except for sets, overpairs and flush draws, and I might have a gutshot bluff. Maybe I should have bet to take it down now? What size?
Turn 2s
Villain pots it for 12.87BB. Whoa. What did he call our 3bet with? What is he doing this with? Answer before reading on.
In game, I think of the sets. Would he open small pairs UTG? This deep and with his “run good” stats, it’s possible for him to have all 24.
And of course, just an over pair.
I don’t think he called my terrible 3bet with 6-4, but maybe with A-4, 12 combos. Probably just A4s, 3 combos.
Then as far as the flushes I just put him on the broadways, half a dozen combos or so.
Pot odds 33%.
Stop. What do you do? What hands to you call or raise? Why?I decide to put him to a decision. If he doesn’t have the nuts this is gonna suck. I 4X 2bet to 51.47BB.
He calls. Stop.
What’s he got? What do I have?River 8h. (115.8)
He checks, Stop.What ranges do each of us have here?
Given the ranges you put us on, what should I do?
SpoilerI’ve got Ace high in a 115BB pot!
What the hell was I thinking? How often is my Ace high good? 👨🎓.
I’ve got 139BB behind, I can check and lose and still be fine, except everyone at the table will value bet me relentlessly from now on and bluff less, which in a way is easier. Well, at least the players paying attention will.
Do I really want to give up 75BB that easy?
Not this fish, lol.
I still think it is more likely that he has a set or an over pair, and not a flush.
I pot it, leaving me about 25BB to play with. Of course, he puts me all in, and I have to call 25 to win 465. I decide to just re-buy instead of grind, and call. One of my many bad decisions.What hands are both of us getting here with?
Maybe I can get a scholarship as a punter somewhere….🏈. I don’t think I would do this in a higher buy-in tournament. Maybe I have this backwards. A better player might be more likely to fold? -
1 Reply
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13 hands of data is not significant — yet, not useless.
With a 3bet of 29%, this means that this villain has 3bet 3-4 of the last 13 hands.
His mindset is more likely “gamble gamble” and not “patient assassin”.
Action
— utg opens 2 bb
— button 3bets to 5.22 bb
— villain calls
Ranges
The villain min-raised from early position and then called the small 3-bet oop to get heads-up. Since, he didn’t 4-bet, I think we can assume he doesn’t have a top tier hand. Thus, I would start with this generic range
— pocket pairs = 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88
— aces = A2, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AT
— others = KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, J9, T9, 98, 87, 76, 65
The hero 3-bet mis-clicked and then forgot his cards (happens to the best of us). This range might be a bit loose for some and bit tight for others. It’s just a guess.
— pocket pairs = 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA
— aces = AJ, AQ, AK
— others = KQ
Intentions
Given the action, I assume that the villain will check most flops to the hero. I also assume that the hero will c-bet the majority of flops. With a pot size of (5.22 bb + 5.22 bb + 1 bb + 0.5 bb ~~~ 12 bb). The hero could c-bet a few different sizes: 3 bb, 6 bb, or 9 bb. All of these bet sizes have pros and cons.
On the flop 3h5s7s,
The villains pf calling range could have hit this board.
— sets = 33, 55, 77 — (3 combos each)
— two pair = 75, 73, 53 — (9 combos each)
— straight = 64 — (16 combos)
— one pair = 88, 66, 44, 22 — (6 combos each)
— gut-shots = 98, 76, 65 — (16, 12, 12 combos)
— flush draws = these are possible for both ranges
The hero should c-bet this board.There is a small chance that villain hit a set, two pair, or a straight on this flop.
If you have AA, you can more safely check the turn because there are favorable turn cards and very few bad outs that can get you in more trouble. Checking is more dangerous for a hand like AK because you’re allowing a lot of combos to hit a free card. My play is to c-bet 6 bb on this flop with the majority of my hands.
Turn Play
The board 3h5s7s2s and the villain leads full pot into you. The 2s makes the board draw heavy. Any As, Ks, Qs will want to see the river. Also, A4 has a wheel. The full pot bet size offers 2:1 odds which means you break-even with a 33% win rate. With implied odds and the right hand, you could consider playing this one by either calling or raising.
If you have AA with As, you have an over-pair and nut flush draw. Would you jam over the 12 bb bet with this hand?
If you have AK with As, you have two overs and the nut flush draw. Should you call with this hand?
If you have AKss, you have hit the nut flush. Should you raise or call with this hand?
You actually re-raise to ~52 bb and villain calls.
What the heck 😡
At this point, I’m going to assume that the villain is a fish. Given this, I would bet big on the river with my strongest range and check the river (expecting to get called when I bet river) with my weakest range.
River Play
The pot is ~116 bb and the board reads 3h5s7s2s8h
The villain checks.
The hero should bet with flushes, sets, and any As hands as a bluff.
I can’t find any weak hands in the hero’s range that hero should check on the river. I would probably bet 99 on the river. If called, I assume the villain has a weird two pair more often than a set or straight. They might also have a weird one pair + draw type hand like (54 or 76).
Spoiler
I followed your rules and didn’t read ahead.
The opponents line is pretty strong.
— flop — check, check
— turn — they donk bet pot, you 3-bet, they call
— river — they check, you bet big, they put you all in
Ace high is never good on this board but there is merit to bluff with it. The pot is huge. He checked river because he knows that you won’t check behind with nothing. When you bet, the villain should know that you’re bluffing some of the time because you have no showdown value. Assuming you bluffed with AK or AQ with As….bluffing should get some hands to fold, especially at this stack depth. Just not sure it’s wise against the gamble gamble type. My preference is to pull this move on the patient assassin.
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