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Hero Calling a LAG
We are in a $400 World Series of Poker Circuit event in the Midwest. The blinds are 400/800/800. I have about 70k in the HJ and open the action 1800 with 99. Only the BB with 55k calls. The BB is a loose, aggressive, competent player. I’ve had a fairly aggressive image myself and have built a well above average stack.
Flop (4800) is QhJd5c. BB check. I bet 3000. BB calls.
Turn (10,800) is 6c. Action goes ck/ck.
River (10,800) is Th. BB bet 8000. After a long tank, and no live reads, I sigh-call and get shown KT.
Now, GTO Wizard agrees with almost everything I did, including the river hero call. The only thing I did that gets a minority percentage in the mixed strategy was flop sizing. GTO Wizard C-bets range here, and throughout the range the sizings are nearly evenly mixed. It tends to prefer C-bets that are under half-pot, though. For my specific holding and for the other middle pocket pairs under TT it only gives about 8% for the larger C-bet. But no human, much less simian, could ever memorize the complex mixed strategy recommended by GTO Wizard in this flop spot.
I don’t think I did anything awful by sticking with my usual procedure of using a larger C-bet sizing on flops with two high cards when I have range advantage and position. This is reinforced by the read I had on this opponent.
The river hero call is what I’m wondering about. GTO Wizard would never fold 99 here, and would call about 69%, but would jam about 25%. It jams more often when I have flush blockers. In hindsight against this aggressive opponent, I should have strongly considered jamming, turning my 99 into a bluff and exploiting his aggressive tendencies. He did mention afterwards that once I went into the tank he was really worried I would call and have him beat.
What do you think? Would you jam river and jeopardize your tournament on a hunch like this?
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