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Hero or Fool Call?
Thanks for featuring one of my hands on the podcast! Kinda thrilling tbh, and I learned a ton. I am forcing my entire family to listen to it :).
Sorry I’ve made the hand history below difficult to post. Hopefully it will go through this time.
Live $180 Freezeout MTT on the final table/money bubble. I’m UTG with an average stack, the chip leader is UTG+2, and the second place chip leader is in the CO.
Pre-flop: Holding KQo, I open-raise to 2.5BB. The chip leader and the second place chip leader both call. Everyone else folds.
Flop is KT7 rainbow. I bet 1/4 pot. The chip leader – who I’ve seen make bluff-shoves with air in two prior tournaments – raises to 2x my stack, over 3x pot, leaving 1/3 of his stack behind. The second place chip leader tanks for an eternity. I would estimate the chip leader’s raise represented about 85% of the CO’s stack.
While the CO tanked, I thought and observed. I could fold and limp into the money, and then probably fade away quickly because the blinds were about to pick up at warp speed. Min cash was 1.38x of a buy-in. Not very exciting. Nevertheless, if the CO called (or shoved), I would fold. So, my decision was what to do if the CO folded.
I observed the chip leader. I’d seen that look before. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen him bet big when he had it; I’d defintely seen him bet big when he had nothing and assume an arrogant, alpha male posture. I saw a trace of that now, but more imporantly – I thought anyhow – the longer the CO tanked, the less the chip leader looked sure of himself and the more he looked anxious.
Eventually and reluctantly, the CO folds. I snap call. The CO practically gasps and comments to the TD that he thought I was “weak” because of my “light bet” on the flop, almost apopletic that I called (“he snap calls???).
I would love feedback on:
1. My decision to open with KQo UTG on the money/final table bubble with the two chip leaders behind.
2. My 1/4 pot bet on the flop with top pair, good kicker.
3. My call after the CO folds to the chip leader’s >3x pot bet.
Thanks!
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12 Replies
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Nice job on making good observations on the opponents and using that information to good use.
I would like a bit more information. What is your stack size? You say
your stack is average. How much larger are the big stacks? Are there any players with extremely small stacks (4bbs or less)? These all affect the ICM adjustments.
How many players at your table? My guess would be 5 handed. I think KQo open is fine.
Postflop depends on the other factors I mentioned.
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Thanks.
I estimate that I had 320K chips (20BB), the chip leader had 900K (56BB), and the CU had 700K (44BB). I don’t recall any small stacks.
We were 8- or 9-handed. As I think about it, we were probably down to ~17 players with 9 making the money/final table, so more like approaching the bubble than on it, I guess.
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Or maybe 6- or 7-handed with ~13 players left. I guess I’m not that observant, lol (and/or my memory stinks).
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Black_Spruce, if you have a phone, I highly recommend getting two apps. The first is the poker keyboard. This is an alternative keyboard that lets you take notes at the table much quicker. I know it is available for iOS, and I think it is for Android too. The second is a really good notes app. My personal preference is Bear Notes (https://bear.app/), but I think this is iOS only. There are likely good alternatives for Android that you can find. The key is a notes app that helps you organize these spots quickly.
Why am I saying all this? Because it is so hard to accurately recall these spots after the fact and the details really matter. If we are 10 left with an FT of 9 getting paid, I’m folding KQo pre from UTG. Just not worth it and my opponents can make my life miserable if they’re good. If we’re 17 left with 9 getting paid, now we’re far enough away that I’m opening KQo and going with it once I hit a flop like this. If we’re 13 left with 9 getting paid, it is more marginal. I’m likely still going with it based on this dynamic, but a fold is not out of the question. Especially if there are some shorter stacks around us.
Also, notetaking like this not only helps us after the fact, it helps us be more observant in the moment. How many until we get paid and how many do I cover? These are important questions that inform our decisions and if we get into a practice of taking notes here and there, we’ll get more practiced at paying attention to those dynamics. (of course, you can always just use a little notepad, but I like the phone better).
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That is great advice, I will download both now. The fact is that I have never taken any notes in-game and instead try to reconstruct afterwards, but you’ve made the benefits of in-game notetaking clear. Thanks!
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I wouldn’t blame you for being tired of this hand, but to clarify, we were defintely 8- or 9-handed with approximately 17 players left and 9 making the money/final table. (I know this because KQo is well within my first-in range UTG when less than 8-handed (not borderline, as was the case in this hand), and we were down to two tables.)
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Nice call! I’m not sure I’ve ever been put to the test like that with a such a big overbet near a bubble. Looks like your observation paid off. 💪
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