[binkley]

I don’t remember what I folded here. I’ve recently been more aware of adjusting my BB calling range based on position of the raiser, raise size, and heads-up vs multi-way. I’ve heard multiple professional coaches (Brokos and Affleck) say that the benefit of better pot odds doesn’t always outweigh the penalty of facing more opponents. I fold many unconnected offsuit hands.

On the turn you are faced with calling 1750 with the pot already 3984. A break even call requires 31% equity. If you are behind and have a straight flush draw (Ac3c) then you have ~25% equity. So you don’t have direct odds.

So with your draws, I think it’s shove or fold. If a shove gives you >7% fold equity, then that’s a profitable option.

We need to mix in strong hands to give our opponent a dilemma when we shove. When you shove, UTG has to call 1816 to win a pot of 5734 (or 7550 after the call). Equity for a break even call is 24%. In other words, if UTG loses 76% of the time, it’s a break even call.

Assume your strong value hands win 100% of the time and your draws improve to win 25% of the time. Let X be the percentage of strong value hands you should be shoving: 76% = X + 25%(1-X) solving the equation, X = 68%

To make your opponent indifferent, your shoving range should be 68% value and 32% draws.

I think that you can have a calling range if you think that UTG is capable of check-raising with some bluffs. Basically if you have good bluff catchers and UTG has bluffs, you can use these to call. If UTG is never bluffing, then you don’t need a calling range. You may want to include some strong value hands in your calling range so that UTG can’t simply double barrel you off of your entire calling range.

[captainwalleye]

This was a very well played hand by the so called “hero”. I think you are spot on when you say that your calling range is stronger than your shoving range. If you are willing to smooth call a check raise for 1.3x pot sized bet, most likely you don’t fear the club draw. A call here would scream “I have QQ or 44”, and the villain would most likely only continue to push the action if the river provided the nuts. You would almost never raise these hands because you would be hoping that UTG was holding two clubs and would catch his flush on the river, guaranteeing your double-up.

Because you elected to shove, rather than call, we can assume you have a very strong hand, and you think you are ahead at the moment, or at least drawing with significant equity. It would be interesting to know if you have any bluffs here, but I think very rarely….

But if you think you are ahead, what have you narrowed the villain’s range to with the action on the turn? I think the villain made a mistake by raising so large on the turn. Although it serves notice that he likely intends to get stacks in, I think this bet weakens his range by removing QQ and 44- these hands will normally want the flush draws to tag along for a more reasonable callable-sized bet. Because he was UTG and raised pre-flop, this removes any 2 that isn’t suited with an A. Because A2c is not possible with the 2c on the board, and because there are only 2 combos of suited A2 remaining, it is unlikely that villain is holding one.

You haven’t said what your hand was, but I thought it was somewhat likely that you were holding the Ac. Because the villain seems to have unintentionally eliminated a full house from his range, and if you held the nut flush blocker, the only hands you really have to fear a call from are AA, KK, AQ. If you don’t hold the Ac….. the Kc, Qc, Jc or Tc in your hand would also significantly block the villain’s pre-flop raising range which would include the Ac.

From the villain’s point of view, the only hands you should be making this shove with are very strong hands (not full house). To shove over the top of an oversized turn check-raise, you are likely to have A2, AA, KK, or AQc, all of which have him beat.

Well played, Jim! I am rooting for the villain in the next showdown!

[binkley]

The Hero’s turn bet of 500 is 40% pot. The pot would be 2334 after calling the 500 bet. So the resulting raise is 1750 into 2334 or a 75% pot. I wouldn’t 100% eliminate nutted hands based on the check raise sizing.

But I’m having a difficult time finding hands that would check raise and fold. Would villain be turning a marginal hand (e.g 88) into a bluff? If called, would villain follow up with a river bluff?

[captainwalleye]

I think a better question is, what would the villain check raise with and not fold? Wouldn’t he have to have only QQ, 44, 22, AQc in order to make this call?

[jim]

Thanks for the kind words but when you smash the flop like I did every decision seems like a good one! I was holding AcQc for Top Pair, Top Kicker, Nut Redraw to the flush. The turn action is what I’m interested in. In a vacuum this hand probably plays best as a call when the turn pairs the board, but I wanted to ‘strengthen my shoving range” there so decided to include it as a relatively thin made-value hand. @Binkley said somewhere that I should sometimes play my own specific hand against my foe’s range, instead of my range against their range and this seems like a good example of when I should care less about my range and more about my hand. Very interesting discussion so far folks! @CaptainWalleye the turn XR as a bluff probably prints vs my floating range so prob just bad timing. I wonder how many rivers you shove with the rest if I smoothcall the raise instead of shoving?

[captainwalleye]

That hand makes a lot of sense, of course. I would suggest that you should be worried about QQ based on my line, except you knew that there was only 1 combo of that hand possible. I could have held 44, but again unlikely.

To answer your question, I am rarely continuing on the river with my semi-bluff. Your turn call would be just too strong, and should signify that you are holding a boat and are not concerned about another club falling on the river. I did have a couple of outs that would have ended your tournament, so I think you were wise to push your 95% equity in that spot and take it down.