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Interesting hand from the Final Table of a 1500 player ACR tourney
Very interesting spot in the $10 – $15K GTD Final Table. We had just made the final table and there were 8 players left. 8th paid $262 and 1st paid $2131. This is a multiway pot with lots of interesting decisions, especially considering ICM. I would like the groups thoughts on how to think about each street.
I wrote this up in PowerPoint so I am going to try to lay this out via pictures. If that doesn’t work I will post the hand history
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20 Replies
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I like a small and exploitative 3-bet with this table dynamic. UTG is opening too wide and we have a bunch of short stacks behind us that should really fear our 3bet. Something like 7 bb would be fine in this spot. I’m folding to a cutoff or button overjam because that range has to be just the best hands. Calling either of the blinds shoving and folding to further aggression from UTG. But I think we take this down right now a lot with a hand that doesn’t play that well post-flop. The most likely scenario we find ourselves in is with a UTG flat, IP, and heads up.
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I like either a call or a fold here. It’s early on the FT and I don’t see much of a need to try and start a fight with the chip leader. If we call, we want to play this as passively as we can post-flop to avoid conflict with the larger chip stack. For that reason, I don’t mind a fold either. I’d be folding 66 most likely here, and calling 88. So 77 seems like an ok fold or call.
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UTG raises 2.38 bb
You have 39 bb in MP with pocket 7’s
Fold
— This isn’t an ideal spot to set-mine. You have too many players behind who can 4-bet if you 3-bet or who can 3-bet if you flat. The opener has you covered and is raising from UTG. Being in MP makes this a difficult spot.
3-bet
— This might be the 2nd best option. Raising will help thin the field and get you heads-up. If I get 4-bet, I’m folding 77 a very high % of the time. This is an investment w/ no backbone and I think it’s best avoid it unless I think my opponent will fold to the 3-bet.
Call
— I really don’t like this option. It is a cheap investment w/ no backbone and no chance of winning unless you hit. You flop the set about 12% of the time. Given the pot odds, you need to call 2.38 bb to win (1.5 + 2.38 bb). This means you need to win ~38% of the time to break-even on calling. Next, you need to find the hand equity of Pocket 77 vs. the UTG pre-flop raising range as chip leader at the final table. If the decision is close, then consider the implied odds of hitting your hand and whether or not you will get paid if you hit.
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Now that we’re here and multiway, I don’t mind the flat, but I’d definitely give some thought to a raise. Ultimately, BB is in a pickle here. They really need to win this pot and they’re so short that I think they have to commit themselves with any Jx or diamond draw. If we think they might bluff shove some weaker hands when we flat, we should do it, but I think the hands that put chips in the middle from BB are rather inelastic to us calling or raising. So I like the raise because I want to charge UTG to continue with those same kinds of hands.
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Easy flat call here. It can give the SB the option to jam a lighter than normal here with the CBet and call from us. The majority of our range here plays a passive and calling strategy so we want to have some value in our range. I’d be raising a pretty small portion here that mostly consists of flush draws and hands like JT/QJ/QQ.
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Flop is 7d Jd 4c
SB checks
UTG bets 3.28 bb into 2 players.
You have position and you flopped middle set.
Call
— This is a great spot to flat. The SB has a ~10 bb stack. If they have a pair or a decent draw, This is an ok spot for them to jam, not ideal, but maybe a last resort. By flatting, you represent a huge range of hands (some weak, some strong). By raising now, that range would shrink to mostly value hands and very few bluffs on a J high unconnected board. Instead, calling might induce them to over-value their hand or perhaps the UTG will continue c-betting the turn.
Raise
— There is some merit to raising the flop to build a pot however the board texture is not one to be scared of. Raising might scare away both opponents leaving you with a 12 bb pot and no showdown. You have the nuts and should try to get more value whenever possible.
Fold
— Don’t Fold
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This isn’t our favorite turn, but it also isn’t the worst. UTG bet the flop and checked the turn. Once they do, I think we can eliminate JJ, 910, and even 88 from range. I’m putting them on a lot of Jx, 99, some overpairs, and diamond draws at this point. The only hand that might be getting a little tricky is 9d10d, but that’s one combo, so I’m betting here. And I’m betting fairly big. Pot is 19bb. I’m betting 12-13bb.
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Easy spot to value bet here. Just depends on the sizing. I wish the SB had more chips so we could bet ~1/2 their stack and have betting remain open if they shoved. Since we can’t do that. I’d size somewhere around half pot — 10 BBs.
I’m also planning on checking back most rivers if this bet gets called. -
Pot Size ~ 19 bb
SB has ~9 bb
UTG has ~52 bb
Hero has ~33 bb
You should bet. The question is how much.
1) Long Shot….If you bet 49% of the SB stack or about 5 bb into 19 bb, then this gives both players good pot odds to chase and outdraw you. The benefit is when the SB shoves, the UTG calls, and you still have the option to re-raise and continue to build the pot with a strong hand.
2) Standard…You could bet 9 bb into 19 bb or about 1/2 the pot. This would price out most draws, put the SB all-in, and give the UTG an option to possibly check-raise your remaining ~20 bb. I’m calling if this happens.
3) Raise Big…You could bet ~15 bb and go for big value. You might get called by a bluff catcher (TT, 99, AK) but I might be stretching.
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So the 10 is also a little dicey. We’re now losing to 99, 1010, and a few diamond combos with the 9d (8d9d, 9d10d, Qd9d, Kd9d, Ad9d). But if UTG has those hands, they have a lot of missed draws in this spot too. I do not fear JJ or 88 the way this hand played out. In a vacuum without ICM, I’m calling this. There are just too many bluffs and we’re getting the right price.
That said, with ICM in play, this is a much trickier spot. We can fold and still be 3rd in chips at this final table. This is why I like the small 3bet pre. It seems like ICM encourages you to flat more in this kind of spot, but I’d argue that you lose less and win more often by putting your opponents to tough decisions. I also like making our turn bet larger, which would have helped eliminate some of the marginal holdings we’re now scared of.
I’d be curious what others think, but I think in game I find an ICM fold.
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Very interesting hand and spot…thanks for sharing! And love the PPT layout…def my form of communication.
Pre-flop: I like the call since it motivates short stack to jam and UTG could fold and we take an easy heads up flip with the short stack
Flop: I like the call on a somewhat disconnected board, keeps UTG wide and can draw in the SB
Turn: Fading a diamond is great since that could be in SB range…once UTG checks I agree there are fewer made hands in that range. I would default to a big bet here, but don’t want to bet over a third of my stack and have to call off. I think I prefer a jam on the turn to maximize fold equity and end the hand quickly. Also fade a straight or flush completing river where V can bluff at me or make a hand.
River: As played I think hands we beat may bet smaller for value, so this has to be a straight or bluff…given ICM I think I fold and have trouble sleeping that night.
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Agree with Chris.
My first reaction is call, but everything when you think about it ends up leaning towards fold. Gross spot.
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