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Intricacies within Poker Strategy
Every time I peel back a layer of the onion that is this game expecting that I have gotten to the core I find there is another more intricate layer beneath. In the short time that I have been a member here I’ve unearthed two new layers that have increased my intellectual knowledge of the game (even if I am struggling to implement them in-game).
The first was internalizing range versus range play, which I had known about previously but not internalized. The second is board texture. And then I came to realize that I didn’t fully appreciate range versus range UNTIL I understood board texture and how different ranges interact with it. So that’s it, I understand it all now, and I’m a poker genius! Hardly!
So now when I am playing my A Game in the nightly home game (maybe 30% of the time?) I’m trying to concentrate on range versus range and how the different ranges might have hit the flop. And I’ve discovered yet another twist in strategy. Because of the collaborative learning style of Rec.Poker I’ve come to know (to a certain extent) which players know AT LEAST as much as I do (i.e. all of the recing crew and a good number of other players).
So here’s the next layer, a sort of “I know that they know that I know…”. I open for 2.2x from EP with AK off. (This is a hypothetical hand so lets just say everyone has 50 BB, no ICM, etc.). The BB is the only caller. The flop is 3,4,5 rainbow. The BB knows that he/she has both the range advantage and the nut advantage on this flop (all sets, more wheels, more OESDs, possibly some 2 pair). Therefore the BB is supposed to bet a high frequency at a low bet size (I think, assuming they have any donk-betting range?). Here’s the conundrum. I know that they are taking into account their range, my range, and the board texture. So their bet doesn’t necessarily mean they have hit the flop. But there is more of a chance that they did than I did. Am I supposed to call to see if I can hit an A or K? Am I supposed to play this as an A high bluff catcher even though they may well continue to barrel if the next card is not a Broadway? How may streets? Or am I just supposed to give up based on the unfortunate scenario that the flop was terrible for me? Or, should I be 3-betting the flop based on my range and the fact that I could have lots of over pairs to the board (trying to turn the table on the fact that I know that they should be betting most of their range whether they hit or not)?
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2 Replies
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GTO strategy is the baseline from which we exploit our opponents. So let’s look at the GTO strategy first.
Our GTO EP open range is something like AA-66,AKs-A4s,KQs-K8s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,AKo-AJo,KQo,[90.0]T8s[/90.0],[85.0]KJo[/85.0],[70.0]55[/70.0],[65.0]ATo[/65.0],[60.0]A3s[/60.0],[45.0]44,QJo[/45.0],[30.0]98s[/30.0],[25.0]K6s,87s[/25.0],[20.0]33,K7s[/20.0],[15.0]KTo[/15.0],[5.00]76s[/5.00]
The BB GTO calling range against an EP open raise is something like 99-22,AQs-ATs,A6s,A3s-A2s,KQs,K9s-K7s,K5s-K2s,QTs-Q2s,J8s-J2s,T8s-T2s,98s-92s,86s-82s,75s-73s,64s-62s,53s-52s,43s-42s,32s,A9o-A7o,KTo-K6o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,[95.0]A4s,AJo[/95.0],[90.0]76s[/90.0],[85.0]KJs,54s,A5o[/85.0],[80.0]65s,KQo[/80.0],[75.0]A4o[/75.0],[70.0]A7s[/70.0],[65.0]A9s[/65.0],[60.0]TT,QJs,JTs-J9s,T9s,87s,KJo[/60.0],[55.0]A8s,AQo,ATo[/55.0],[45.0]KTs,A3o[/45.0],[40.0]JJ,A5s,K6s[/40.0].
You can copy the above ranges into GTO+ and Flopzilla.
Range Trainer Pro configured for 60bb has the BB donking 67% pot 24.7%, 25% pot 10.4%, and checking 64.9%.
If the BB checks, we check back AKo 68-75% of the time, with small variations in suits.
If the BB donks 67% pot, we call 80% and raise 35% pot when our king doesn’t block any backdoor flush draw AND our ace does block the backdoor flush draw.
If the BB donks 67% pot, we call 55% and fold 45% when our king blocks the backdoor flush draw AND our ace doesn’t block the backdoor flush draw.
If the BB donks 67% pot, we call 16% and fold 84% when both of our cards block the backdoor flush draw.
Isn’t poker wonderfully nuts? No wonder they call the best possible hand the “nuts.”
Of course, no mere mortal can possibly remember all this among the plethora of other things we find out in solvers.
I attached images of the BB donking range and the EP response to BB donk.
The GTO takeway here is this flop favors the BB caller, so when our AK whiffs a flop like this proceed cautiously.
Now for real-world human opponents.
Most people “know” to never donk. So when one does, what does that mean?
In low stakes I think it means they connected well with the flop and sometimes when their hand is vulnerable and they want to protect it. Other times they smashed it and want to get more money in the pot and are afraid we’ll check. These are the classic donk moves from which the play is named.
If you’re playing against a simian, he might have a good draw and will do it once early in the session, to send a deceiving message about how he plays.
You’re correct that this flop connects better with the BB caller than with the EP opener. However the EP opener still has a slight range advantage by virtue of playing in position.
If the BB player donks with a probe-ish, block-ish sizing… disappoint him with a big raise. Just be ready to lose once in awhile. On ACR I had a BB donk at me small on a 642r flop and I tried to disappoint him with a big raise with my QQ. He surprised me by calling. I made it to showdown and he had 42s.
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“most people know to never donk”
There are many reasons why donk betting is risky:
— out of position
— usually don’t have the initiative
— inflating the pot first to act
Whether I donk-bet or not completely depends on my opponents tendencies.
If the opponent will c-bet or double barrel often enough, I might plan to check/raise on the flop or turn. For example, I defend with 23 suited and the flop is A23. For me, I prefer donk-betting here against most players. I likely have the best hand and yet, my hand is vulnerable to Ax and pocket pairs….the most likely hands that call on the flop. Also, the probability of getting counterfeited with bottom two pair is about (40/47)*(3/46) = 5% if you assume the board hits the same card twice in a row (i.e. turn 6, river 6 or turn J, river J).
If my opponent has a tighter range, the board texture might make me donk-bet the flop or turn as a bluff. For example, the board reads J83, I might plan to donk-bet turn cards like 9 or 7…simply because the tighter range is less likely to hit this board and it should look dangerous to AK, AQ high, or top pair AJ. The over-pairs AA and KK might even think carefully about whether to call or raise a donk-bet on the board J839.
Lastly, when the board texture includes a possible flush, a donk-bet looks kind of fishy….but it can be effective. For example, if the board reads Js8s3s (monotone). This is a scary board for any hand that doesn’t include a set, two-pair, small flush, or big flush draw. All other hands should pass, right? In my opinion, it’s common for players in position and with the initiative to check-back these monotone flops. If they do check back, donk-betting the turn card is a good play the majority of the time in my opinion.
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