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Is this a good river 3! spot?
ACR cash game 6-max .05/.10 stakes last night vs V who’s a US winning reg playing 3-4 tables and 24/19/12 stats over 100+ hands. V is effective stack at 100BB and we cover. Overall V is aggressive with good hands, bets for value and hasn’t showed many bluffs.
Preflop: folds to v in BTN who raises to 2.5BB, sb folds, we call in BB with 2c2s
[5.5BB] Flop: 9c 8c 2h: we check, v bets 2.7BB, we call
[10.9BB]Turn: 9c 8c 2h Js: we check, V checks
[10.9BB] River: 9c 8c 2h Js 8h: we bet 9.7BB, V raises to 24.8BB (leaving 70BB behind)
Can we raise for value here on the river? In game I thought we beat overpairs and trip 8’s, and straights, but lose to some better full houses. Seems like straights would bet turn to protect against fd, and I don’t see overpairs checking turn or raising our big river bet. So this seems like trips or a better boat, and I’m not sure this V would call a 3! without a boat…what would you do?
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4 Replies
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I think I would raise. Seems like they had pocket jacks, queen/10 or A8, K8, Q8.
Not sure they check turn with 99, 98, J8 or overpair and the 8 did not scare them. Although real time I may think they only have pocket jacks, the number of hands they could have that you beat is much higher than pocket jacks so I go for it. If they have jacks that’s poker.
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Preflop:
Hero’s call with 22 vs button 2.5x raise is standard
Flop: 9c 8c 2h Pot:5.5bb
After checking and facing the 1/2 pot cbet, Hero can flat to keep in all of V’s bluffs or check-raise to grow the pot. This deep with bottom set (not blocking top pair) and a number of draws available, I prefer a check-raise. There are a lot of cards that could kill your action. It also balances the times that you may XR with a bluff like a flush draw (7c5c).
Turn: [9c 8c 2h ] Js Pot:10.9bb
As played, Hero check is good to allow V to bet. V chooses to check back.
River: [9c 8c 2h Js] 8h Pot:10.9bb
Hero leads for 9.7bb, V raises to 24.8bb with 70bb remaining in stack.
Hero beats all 2 pairs (J9, AA, KK, QQ), all trips (8x), and straights (QT, T7).
Hero loses to better full houses and quads (99,88,JJ, 98, 82, J8).
It’s unlikely that V would check two pair or better on the turn. Also given Hero flat call on the flop, V will likely underestimate the strength of Hero’s hand.
Hero should reraise.
Pot is 45.4bb and will be 60.5bb once Hero call’s. An all-in jam is a slight overbet but could look more bluffy.
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RESULTS: we called and v had A8o
Thanks for all the thoughts – we def left some value on the table here. In game I thought a good player only calls with better, but I should have also considered all the hands we beat and can put V in a tough spot.
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