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Is this a good triple barrel spot or do we give up?
Main v is a winning player, does not bluff a lot and plays a fairly tight range. He is capable of folding in big spots and likes to slow play extremely strong hands.
4 ways .10/.20 NL $20 effective
We are in BB with 6h7h UTG folds, BTN limps, SB raises to .6, we call, BTN calls
Flop: [1.8] 8s 9d Kc SB checks, BB checks, BTN bets 1.2, SB folds, we raise to 3.6 BTN calls
Turn: [9] 8s 9d Kc 9s we bet 4.50, BTN calls
River:[18] 8s 9d Kc 9s 2s Hero?
My thoughts:
Pre flop: pre flop raiser opens most hands, so this seems like a fine spot to defend
Flop: I think BTN is capable of taking a stab with any piece of this flop or a draw or even some unconnected broadways. He will typically give up on bluffs after the flop and doesn’t vary flop sizing too much. I think my raise getting called narrows his range down to Kx or middle pairs (e.g. 1010, 77) type hands
Turn: In game I thought continuing aggression can set up a nice river shove when I get there or if we get a good card, but today am thinking a top pair isn’t folding to a smaller bet and I likely bet bigger with trips or AK
River: flush draw got there, my first thought was to jam representing we got there and to get a one pair hand to fold. As I think about it today, this may be a better jam when a front door flush draw hits that would be more consistent with my flop raise.
I also consider giving up since he’s called the flop raise and turn bet already – he probably has value he will go all the way with. I also don’t have the best image for a bluff considering I’m stuck a bit on the session.
Was it a mistake to inflate the pot on the flop here? Perhaps with more chips behind I can get Kx to release with a jam on turn or river?
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5 Replies
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This is a spot that comes up a lot. How can you build out a check-raising range without adding draws from out of position? You can’t – they’re the best complement to sets and 2pr combos, and all your XRs are OOP by definition. So the questions are: is this a good candidate for a “draw XR” and if so what is the sizing?
Having two unders is very different than having two overs, even with a K out there – not being able to count on your pair outs makes your showdown value much less likely to be realized as a winner. So if I thought the raiser was cbetting a weak range here I would consider making my XR larger so that I could more confidently assign them a value range and play accordingly on future streets, probably in a polarized fashion. Otherwise the smaller XR I think is more like a value XR with a range of flopped sets targeting a pair of kings and fewer semibluff combos – I don’t know, I often have trouble deciding which combos of bluffing candidates to use when it’s a good spot to pull the trigger, and which ones I prefer to call with to realize my equity. OOP I’m always more inclined to make bigger bets and raises with stronger stronger polarized ranges than IP.
Once the turn pairs I think the half pot bet really only gets them to fold the very bottom of his flop calling range, so even though it favours your range, I’m not sure you’re representing that part of your range with this sizing, if that makes sense. How many 9s XR the flop? So your other sets improved to boats – they were behind them already. This feels like the TSN Turning Point of the hand, where you have to decide if they have a weak enough range that it’s worth another big bet, or if you’re going to try to realize your equity and XC small bets to make your straight on the river. the board pairing is bad for your straight, so even though it improves your range I still probably give up after they call the flop. It seems like such a good bluffing spot though, what am I missing RecPoker Nation?
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In your villain description, you said that they play a fairly tight range. But given the position (Button) and preflop action (limp and then calling when closing the action), I think we need to assign a pretty wide range. This range will include a lot of 9x. In position, button could bet pair of 9’s for protection and call your raise.
For value, you would raise two pairs like K9 and 98. But you’re unlikely to check raise with just a single pair of 9’s. So the 9s on the turn seems better for button range than yours.
With the straight draws missing on the river, I don’t see a K (or 9) folding. Even though 76 is at the bottom of your range, I don’t think a bluff gets through enough to be profitable.
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My thought is to X/R larger on the flop. If he calls the larger sizing and based on your description he is not folding the turn. With a larger sizing on the flop you can X/C a small turn bet and try to realize your equity on the river. I would not try to bluff this particular villain as played.
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Well, you had him pegged at least, and it IS a very scary board for a one-pair hand. The question really is “does this player fold top pair” and if so on what street – seems like the sizing would make him fold most hands that are worse, but I’d note this villain as someone you can bet 2pr+ conventionally against because he will call down with TP on scary boards. If they are a regular foe, keep calibrating where their thresholds or “fold spots” are and apply more pressure there when bluffing and less pressure there with thin value etc – when they move an inch, we move a mile – it doesn’t take much re-calibrating to find yourself bluffing drastically less or more vs certain foes.
Love the delayed reveal! Thanks @yamel
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