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Is this the time for a live read?
Here’s a hand from the $250 Saturday morning tournament at Canterbury Park.
Worth noting some history on the UTG opponent in the hand. My first impression was that they were a newer player. Have not seen them previously, and the way they acted made me think this way. However, after the first 2 levels, someone sat down to his left and started chatting like they knew each other/played before. This new guy seemed way more experienced so I start to reconsider what I think of this specific opponent. Their tendencies: they’ve shown a relentless ability to bet. Seems like every time they play a hand, they’re betting and betting big. We’ve only seen show down once, and the opponent had a straight flush. But worth noting on the straight flush hand, the villain flopped a pair and donk lead flop, bet turn and bet river after going runner-runner for the straight flush.
On to the Hand:
200/300/300 level: Villain (UTG – 35k) raises to 900, BTN calls, Hero (BB – 16k) calls with 74cc
Flop: 8c7s6h… Hero checks, UTG bets 1k, BTN folds, Hero calls
Turn: 2h… Hero checks, UTG bets 3.5k, Hero??
In this spot it felt like a make or break moment. I’ve got a pair and opponents range is full of overcards, and unfortunately overpairs as well. I considered a raise, to deny the equity from hands like AK, etc. that could spike a better pair than us. Plus our hand has some sneaky back-up equity vs a lot of their range, 7’s, 5’s, and 4’s should all be good for us. So ultimately decided to just call because I thought there would be a decent chance of a check back on rivers given how strong our range looks with just a call here. So we call.
River: 2s… Hero checks, UTG bets 7k, Hero?
Ugh, probably the only card that overpairs would feel confident still betting on cause now they beat all of our two pair combos. I count out my stack and this is pretty much an all-in for me. I’d have some chips left but only a fraction of a starting stack. This does feel like a very polarized spot for our opponent, so to me, it just comes down to how likely are they bluffing, and how likely do they go for value with their overpairs. I’m having a tought decision, and then it happens….
I look over at my opponent because he’s directly on my left. And because he’s so close, and he’s looking down, I know that he cannot see me staring over at his behavior. It’s obvious — He’s shaking and he’s got a very fast pulse rate. My first thought, he’s faking. He knows I was looking at him so he started to act nervous. But the more I think about it, the more I think this is genuine, he can’t see my eyes and he was shaking as soon as I looked at him. Oh how I wish I would have seen his reaction during the straight-flush hand… ugh!
So we’re left to make a big decision here. Can we call here? The bet sizing indicates a polarized range and our opponents reaction only strengthens that view of mine. Do you call here?
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3 Replies
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This is a tough one. We beat no value. Even though we’ve seen them relentlessly bet, the only hand we’ve seen is one that did so for value (perhaps overvaluing itself until it got there, but value nonetheless). That to me is a strike against calling. Although this player has been active, our early estimation of them is perhaps a little inexperienced and active. They may just be hitting cards and overvaluing their hands, but we can’t confirm any big bluffs yet. If we didn’t have the live read, I’m likely laying this down for that reason.
Okay, but on to the read. Shaking doesn’t necessarily mean weakness, but it does push them more toward a polarized range in my mind. There is something big about this hand in their mind that is causing their body to react—either extreme value or air. Since we don’t have a great read on their experience level, I don’t think we can count on them recognizing that you own this board. The most obvious polarized value here is 88-66 or 9T for a flopped straight. For me the shaking helps discount some of those overpair hands. Even though it might be the same bet, if we have QQ here, we’re not as emotionally wired as villain. And I’m not convinced V will go for it with all overpairs.
This is a pretty terrible spot to turn a hand like AK or AQ into a big river bluff, but I’m not sure our villain will recognize that. And there are a lot more of those kinds of overcard hands than there are those full house value hands. Given the read, I’m calling.
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I wouldn’t read too much into the bet sizing because of this: “Seems like every time they play a hand, they’re betting and betting big.” You also have evidence that he donk-leads when he flops a pair. So he sounds like one of those unbalanced aggressive players who defaults to betting, and with larger sizing.
Also, his sizing isn’t that polarizing. If my math is correct, he bets 1/3 pot on the flop and then sizes up on the turn but only to 70%, and then he actually sizes down to <60% on the river.
It’s difficult to read much into the behaviour. He could be nervous because he’s bluffing, or he could be nervous because he has a hand like JJ and realizes how scary the board is. If he is going to play overcards like this, he has a lot more combos of those than he does bigger pairs.
In spots like this I think back to what Andrew Brokos said in POP: when you’re playing against an opponent who deviates from equilibrium by betting (and bluffing) too frequently, the exploit is to call with all the marginal value hands you would normally fold to a more balanced opponent (to paraphrase).
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My buddy flopped quads at our home game last week. He was shaking so bad he dropped his chips!!! LOL.
From my Quizlet (eric_anderson517) on Tells.
When a player makes a very big hand, he may begin to shake noticeably. In general, this is a release of tension and should not be interpreted as concern over his fate.
It’s exciting to come out fighting!
Pass unless you hold something thrilling.
The shaking is uncontrollable. Remember, it’s a release of tension, not fear, that makes this player shake as he bets.Poker tells that may indicate a strong hand…
Fluid speech.
Shaking hands (not easy to imitate).
Full relaxed lips.
A full, ear to ear, relaxed smile.
Eyes open, not blinking.
Stares at flop, and then glance out of corner of eye at players.
Blood pressure is up.
Red in the face or throbbing vein in neck or head.
Drawing in a big breath, nose flaring, and rapid breathing usually mean ready for action.
Glancing at chip stacks (their own or yours) to see how much to bet.
Impatient, wants to bet.
Suddenly sits back in chair, relaxed, calling or betting.
Suddenly sits up in chair, becomes very attentive.
A player’s hands or fingers going closer toward the action, toward the middle of the table.
Anything held up in the air, shoulders, head, nose, fingers, thumbs, or eyebrows arching. Act of levitation.
Sliding chips delicately, quietly into the pot.
Look at flop then glancing intensely at players.
Cheek muscles start to flex.
Some players try to act relaxed, looking off at a TV or a waitress, and then betting.
Pupils of eyes get bigger.
Protecting hole cards more than normal.
Acting weak by making a noise, sighing or shrugging as they call or raise. (Why give away information when you do not have to? This one is a classic “weakness means strength”.)Remember, some of these poker tells are more reliable than others. While some poker experts suggest you watch your opponent’s eyes, I suggest looking at his hands. That trembling hand syndrome is usually the sign of a good hand, and it’s the kind of tell that can’t easily be controlled either, so it’s generally reliable.
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