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JJ vs. big blind defend (WSOP freezeout)
This is a hand from this year’s WSOP $1,500 NL freezeout. V appears to be a French pro, probably calling a bit too wide preflop based on estimated vpip. But likely has an edge vs field post-flop and capable of putting opponents in the blender.
I was never comfortable here. What would your line look like here (including sizing) and why?
200/400/400
Hero (effective stack with ~25K) raises to 1,100 with JcJh
Folds to V who defends BB
Flop: 7s 5d 3s
Chk/bet 1,100/raise 3,100/call
Turn: Kd
V leads 5,200. Hero folds.
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4 Replies
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Did your opponent have a Winamax patch? Could be Romain Lewis.
Preflop is standard. This is the type of flop that GTO recommends to c-bet at a low frequency and with a big bet size. The flop texture and the small c-bet size make it easy for the big blind to x/r. He can definitely have some very big hands like 2 pairs, sets, and straights. But he could also be targeting your overcards and overpairs with a top pair type hand making it very difficult for you to continue. Once we face the check raise and the lead on the turn folding is the only option. I would have checked the flop. The hand would be much easier to play on the turn K after checking the flop.
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Giving you a Cutoff open, your ranges are flipping on the flop. Your hand is crushing. You have top pair or better 19% of the time, while he has top pair or better 21%.
You have a 1% range advantage and a -2% nut advantage. You don’t want to be adding money to the pot here range vs range.
HOWEVER, your hand has 73% equity, so whatever you think you can get away with.
Heuristics say to bet small without the nut advantage, and to bet often with the range advantage. I would try a blocker bet, maybe 20% pot or less, trying to induce a raise. You got him to raise a bigger bet. Good job.
On the King your range advantage improves to 52%.
He can barrel about 40% of the time, your continue range could be the same.
34 cards increase your range equity, 14 decrease.
Your hand still has 67% equity on the turn, giving these ranges to Flopzilla.
5200/9000= 58% pot odds.
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I just realized I didn’t lock the flop continuing ranges. Only 37% of river cards help your range. Down to 61% equity with 58% pot odds.
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So this is a board that I want to check a decent amount as the in position player, but when I do bet, I want to bet bigger. At 60bb effective, if I do bet, I like 75-80% pot bet. I think we can go either way with JJ, but I’d lean toward a bet. Checking back more of my AA-QQ. And betting bigger with JJ-88. I like this bet size on “big blind” boards like this because it is much less comfortable to check raise us as a bluff with this sizing.
When I run this in GTO Wizard, if we bet 83% pot, V can really only raise <10% of their range, when we bet 33% pot, V can raise 18-20% of their range. We have a hand that can either try to play a small pot or take control with our value, but we don’t want to go in between (IMO). So I don’t mind the flop bet, but I don’t love the sizing.
This larger sizing also often buys us a free river card or the ability to barrel on favorable turns (like this K!). With the turned second flush draw on board and us holding neither a spade or diamond, we have the PERFECT big barrel turn card (because we don’t want to block our opponent having spades or diamonds). And if we bet bigger on the flop, we’re more likely to get to make that kind of play.
With our small bet facing a xR/lead, I do think we have to find the fold.
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