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KK — Call or 3-Bet
Tournament — 25 left, 15 paid, 8 handed
I built up an early chip lead and stayed a top 10 stack until this point.
My table was playing straight forward with no one playing crazy. No one really getting out of line but everyone was fighting to get chips when they play a hand.
An opponent raises from HJ to 2.25 bb with about 25 bb. I have KK and decide between 3-betting or calling from the Cutoff. I have 50 bb.
The players behind had 30 bb, 15 bb, 20 bb.
As played, I decided to call. The 30 bb stack jammed all-in, the original raiser folded, and I called with KK to lose to JJ. Not being results oriented. This was a great spot for me to be in pre-flop.
Questions:
1) What is the worst hand that should be 3-betting all-in for these stacks?
2) How often do you think one of the players behind will 3-bet all-in?
3) I wanted to randomize how often I call or 3-bet, what technique would you use at the table to randomize it?
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2 Replies
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This is an interesting question. The shorter the stacks get, the more we can find flats with hands like KK in spots like this. So I like that you are mixing some flats here. To answer your questions:
1) We have 3 players behind us. The question you asked what is the worst hand they *should* jam is different from what is the worst hand they *will* jam. With the opponents you describe, I don’t think many will find some of the bluff hands like KTs or A5s that can very much consider a squeeze here. So they *should* consider those, but likely show up with a much more linear range. From a linear range, I think you could see something like 77 or AJo/KQo show up as the worst hands.
2) So around 8-9% of hands. 88+ ATs+ AJo KQs, and some KQo and 77. There’s a pretty significant chance that with three opponents behind, one of them will have a hand like this. So that’s why the flat can be profitable and we’re happy to get it in versus this range. Even when we go multiway, it isn’t that bad with a hand like this.
3) If I want to randomize live, I spin a chip and use a marker like a clock. Online just a RNG.
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#2 – Answer
If we assume they will only go All-In with top 5% of hands, I get ~14% chance using this equation with 3 players to act:
= 1 – (1 – range)^players = 1 – (1 – 0.05)^3
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