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KQs facing a 3bet
Yatahay Network – 250/500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 73.9 BB
MP+1: 28.02 BB
CO: 34.77 BB
BTN: 84 BB
SB: 119.33 BB
BB: 140.45 BB
Hero (UTG): 72.07 BB
UTG+1: 32.32 BB
8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has Ks Qs
Hero raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 6.6 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.3 BB
Flop: (15.66 BB, 2 players) 5d Qc 5h
Hero checks, CO bets 5.17 BB, Hero calls 5.17 BB
Turn: (26 BB, 2 players) 7c
Hero checks, CO bets 22.38 BB, Hero calls 22.38 BBUsing Flopzilla i input this as the villain’s 3bet range: AA-99,AKs-AJs,KQs,AKo-AJo. We only have 17 hands on the villain and he 3bet once out of eight opportunities. Preflop our equity, based on this range, is 36%. Kind of a loose call. If they were not suited this is a fold.
On the flop our pure equity is 66% (equity vs villain’s entire range).
I will assume the villain will cbet this flop with 100% of his range. When he cbets 33% I have an easy call. First question here is do I x/r in this spot? Paired board and the villain has no 5’s as I did not include A5 or 55 in his 3bet range.On the turn 7c our pure equity is 68% (equity vs villain’s entire range).
The turn bet is where things get interesting. He basically goes all-in offering me 31% pot odds to call. If we give him this range: AA,AhKh,AcKc,AdKd,AhQh,AdQd,AhKc,AhKd,AcKh,AcKd,AdKh,AdKc,AsKh,AsKc,AsKd,KcKh,KdKh,KdKc,KhQh,KdQd,AhQd,AcQh,AcQd,AdQh,AsQh,AsQd,QdQh
We have 41% equity and mathematically it is a call.
What do we do here? Villain has 32 combos (we lose to 18, chop on 2, and win on 12).Okay wizards do we call here?
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3 Replies
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Well I’m no wizard but this is a tough spot. I think without having any info on the villain I would lean towards a call, however depending on the buyin and the opponent I might find a tight fold. My issue is trying to find bluffs. Maybe a random club draw on the turn that they get frisky with? Also it’s such a small three bet pre most players are fairly nutted.
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If V was deeper, I might be able to find a fold. But for 34bb when we started with 76, I’m going to have trouble folding this against an unknown. As you mentioned, we have the odds to call, even against the assumed range. And I’ve seen too many players play nonsense where you can’t rule out a few random hands like 9h8h making this kind of play. We’re going to be behind a decent amount of the time, but I’m mostly calling unless I have a read.
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Definitely don’t want to raise flop as it allows our opponent to play perfectly against us (call with better & fold worse). I am pretty happy bluff-catching flop and turn esp vs. V’s stack size.
I could see a line where V is checking turn unless they pick up equity which sets up a nice turn all-in with a good SPR. Not sure how to weight the near all-in but I am evaluating this as an all-in bet.
The only thing you might do different is folding pre-flop if V is tight and 3-betting your UTG open sets off alarm bells. But, as played, you can’t fold post flop.
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