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Last hand of the night
So we’re in a multiday, multiflight tournament (Hallowscream at Running Aces). The TD has declared three more hands until the end of the night. We reach the 3rd and final hand on the BTN. They will pay 12% of the field and we’ve reached 12.5%, which basically means day 2 will start on the bubble and we can consider this almost the stone bubble.
We have 129k in our stack at the 3k/6k/6k level (21bb). Day 2 will start at 4k/8k/8k (16bb) level. It folds to us on the BTN. The player in the SB has ~80k in chips and the BB covers us with ~175k. We look to our left. SB looks ready to fold and bag. BB looks interested. We look down at 88.
I ran this in HRC with an ICM model 3 away from the money, and it mostly just shoves with 88. I just decided to fold and bag. Mistake?
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1 Reply
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This is where HRC and solvers fall short eh? How do you node lock an “interested” range or a “disinterested” range? Flopzilla won’t tell you anything useful about how ICM affects this spot either. Since fold equity is so important and because you know you don’t have any, you don’t have many profitable combos to play with. I think you made the right, snug fold. Rule #1 in live reads is to play to those reads as if you believe them.
Long and short… good fold.
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