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More Musings from the “semi-studied”
Every once in a while I get an “Aha” moment when what all of the rest of you keep telling me finally clicks. This may be obvious to you all, but now I get it!
I’ve always been asking “When I have a value hand, do I want to size my bet to get what I perceive is a flush draw to call or fold. The answer is always “You want to keep them in”. So I would say “Okay, then I want to bet small.” and the answer is always “No, you want to bet large to charge them for the flush draw.” “But if I bet large then they are going to fold”. And the answer is “You want to allow them to make a mistake”. That never made a lot of sense to me.
Well, I finally get it. If I bet small, I am giving them the odds to call with the flush draw. I always new that. So that is a mistake on my part (a deviation form “perfect play” that they can exploit by calling with a flush draw). If I bet the right amount to not give them the odds to call, they are supposed to fold. Hence I will have played correctly, and they will have played correctly if they fold. I can’t control that. But if they do call, THEY are the ones making the mistake, and now I am exploiting THEM for playing poorly.
If I make the mistake of betting to small, I’m letting them exploit my mistake. If I correctly price them out of the draw, they are either going to play correctly (which I can’t control) or they are going to make the mistake. Poker 101!
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3 Replies
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The next question is… “What size bet gives a flush draw the wrong odds?”, and are we talking flop to turn? turn to river? or flop to river?
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I answer this in one of my Quizlets at quizlet dot com.
(eric_anderson517) Modern Poker Theory Chapter 10.
The site doesn’t like when I post links, but I would love some help and feedback on my quizzes. Please contact me for an invite to my classroom.
A flush draw has 9 outs, which gives them a 19.15% chance to hit their draw on the turn.If I bet 1/3 pot, he will have to call 1/3 to win 5/3, which simplifies to 1/5= 20% MDF.
A flush draw has 9 outs, which gives them a 34.97% chance to hit their draw by the river.
If I bet 1.5X pot, he will have to call 1.5 to win 4, which simplifies to 1.5/4= 37.5% Minimum Defense Frequency.
If he calls at a frequency of 37.5% with 35% equity, he is behind and will have to win some non-flush hands at or before showdown more than 2.5% of the time to be profitable.
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I read The Theory of Poker over twenty years ago. This is from chapter three of the book. It seems obvious, but I think it sums up your thought process.
The Fundamental Theory of Poker by David Sklansky
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents’ cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.
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