[jim]

Hi @EANDERSON85 sorry for the delay publishing this post, there was an issue with the PT4 link that we have now resolved. Keep up the great posts!

[fivebyfive]

I think this is very standard on the flop. This is a bet small spot for sure, even with the nut straight. When the spade hits, it is a negative event, but not that negative. Our turn bet is standard too. V should be raising some of their flush draws on the flop, so while they still have quite a few spade combos, they are less than it might seem. Okay, but when they raise, it gets dicey right? Well, yes, yes it does. They should now be raising their flushes, straights and sets for value, and some of their one spade nothing-hands as bluffs. We’ll be behind here a decent portion of the time, especially because many opponents won’t bluff enough with raises here (they will call with some of their single spade hands rather than raise them and this weighs them toward value), but we can never fold this straight here even though we could be drawing dead. This is in part because we still beat some value (T7 and 99/88 and some of the two pair combos).

To the river. We still beat that same value. It gets a little problematic in real life. At GTO, sets should be betting small or checking, and V’s value all-ins are just flushes and T7/QT. Their bluffs should be some weak one spade hands that also block straights. So some of their QsX/TsX hands. In real life there is a problem though. Many flopped sets will not be able to pull off the gas and many players will not take those single spade blocker hands through a xR turn line and a river shove. So in real life, they’ll have a little more value we beat, but far fewer bluffs. At GTO QT is a pure call to this shove. In real life, it is dicier, and very opponent dependent. I could see arguing in this spot that we can call with our QT combos that contain a spade and fold the non-spade versions.