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Nut Flush Draw, Two Overs on Monochrome Board
Situation: 8-handed, ITM in $10+1 ACR tournament, 90 players remain, hero is UTG+3 With AsQd, 30 bb stack (avg: 26), currently sitting 38/90. Villain (UTG+2 33 bb) opens the action with a 2 bb raise, hero calls, action folds around. Pot: 6.5 bb. Villain is unknown to hero, they have been at table for 3 hands, no prior history.
Flop: 3s5s9s
Villain continues for 3.25 bb, Hero raises to 12.2 bb, Villain jams, hero calls off. Villain: JsJh. Equity on flop is 50/50
Brick, brick, villain holds.
Few Qs curious to hear your perspective on:
– On this flop, with hero effective stack of 28 bb, pot of 9.75 bb, what is the GTO/correct play? Hero raises to 12.2 bb, effectively committing stack. Should hero just flat out shove instead to apply max pressure to take pot down on flop? Call, and see what develops on the turn? Lots of equity: nut flush draw, two overs, backdoor straight draw.
– On the flip side, let’s take Villain’s perspective… with an over-pair and holding the Js… what’s optimal, small bet? How would this change for you if you have JhJd?
Note: when running hands on equity calculator, both players have 50/50 equity on flop.
– Perspective: think in hindsight, would just jam flop to apply max pressure and try to take pot down now. When raising to 12.2 bb, did make that decision knowing we were going to call off if villain jams, but wondering if we jam right away, is villain folding this hand, or still calling off? Without any history, hard to know what he may do… but for thought experiment… how does our decision change if villain is tight passive/tight aggressive/loose passive/loose aggressive?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts!
– M
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2 Replies
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I don’t think we want to push here all that much. I’m a little confused by positions here, but as Eric Gin would suggest I think this is MP vs LJ. But regardless, we’re in a spot where we have position. Why do we want to forfeit that advantage by getting all of our chips in the middle now? We have a very attractive draw and blocker here with two overs. I really like a flat.
One of the big reasons for this is what are we doing with the made nut flush here? Say you flatted with AsQs or AsTs and you get this gin flop. Are you raising here or calling? We’re mostly calling, so when we start raising a lot here, it looks exactly like this kind of hand. My favorite raises IP on a board like this are sets. We protect our equity and can get blasted into by hands like JJ that think we have that flush blocker. But I would rarely raise my AsQx YET. We can consider that more on the Turn, but let’s use position and see how our opponent reacts.
This board can only get dirtier and we don’t fear many turn cards, so let’s let this hand progress and use our positional advantage to put our opponent to the test. It is much easier for them to call off or go over the top with JJ on this flop than it will be for them on most turns.
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I think you have to play this as a 3b pre. His range should be relatively strong and I don’t like the risk of playing AQo multiway if you get callers behind, especially if some of the players in position decide to come along.
Flop I agree with fivebyfive. When you shove there you fold out all the stuff in his range you beat (worse Ax that didn’t connect, other Broadway combos) but you will get called by the strongest part of his range. You have outs against that range but you still don’t want to shove into the top of someone’s range. And as FbF pointed out, your shove looks like exactly the kind of hand you’re holding. Even a very rec-level player is going to think this looks fishy (“If he had a flush, why would he shove? Wouldn’t he slowplay?”).
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