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On the Bubble
In a live MTT with 19 players left and 17 qualifying for Day 2, I had 7.5 BB in the BB. I am the short stack at the table (if not overall) with J9hh. The chip leader at the table (if not overall) opens with 2.5 BB from MP. It folds to me and I reshoved.
Good or bad play?
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3 Replies
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I would like to know more about the situation. With 19 left and 17 qualifying for day 2, it’s 2 away from the day 2 bubble. What about the payout situation? Does everyone going to day 2 cash? Or are you already in the money?
Is the casino, a short drive from your home? Would showing up with a 4bb stack and busting a few hands into day 2 not be a big deal? Or is it a long drive and it wouldn’t be worth it?
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There were two Day 1 flights that day that started four hours apart, with 15% from each flight qualifying for Day 2 (the next day), and 12.5% of the total field getting paid. So, I could make Day 2 and not make the money. With 7.5BB, I felt like maybe I could have squeaked it by playing super tight, but if I did, I very well could bust on the first hand the next day (out of the money).
At the time that this hand went down, I could have entered the second flight with about 40BB, but at that point I had been playing for over six hours and knew that probably wasn’t something I was going to do.
The casino is a 3h19m drive from my home, but I was staying overnight regardless. I guess “Would showing up with a 4bb stack and busting a few hands into day 2 not be a big deal” is the key question. I would have been fine logistically, but I guess I thought I’d rather kinda sorta enter Day 2 with 15BB or 30BB than 4BB. Until I busted at least.
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You are not close to the money. There is little ICM pressure from being close to a payout. We don’t need to tighten up as an adjustment. Since you are planning on being there the next day, there’s also no pressure to try to double up or go home.
This is a close call between folding and jamming. As a shorter stack, we need to find a spot where we can pick up chips either by getting folds or having the best hand and doubling.
Big stack raises 2.5bbs from middle position. In this exact situation, I prefer a fold. But it’s close.
Raise is from middle position. I expect this to be a stronger range than from later position such as CO, BN, or SB.
The raiser is the big stack. You have less fold equity than if it were a middle stack.
Our hand is a J high single gapper. At smaller stack sizes, big cards are more valuable. Suitedness and connectivity give hands more value. JhTh would be a far better hand to jam.
I think jamming with Jh9h is a fine play. I just like it more if any of the above factors were a bit better for us (e.g. raise was from BN or we had QTo).
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