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Outplayed
I like the way villain waited to leverage my stack instead of sending red flags on the flop. I was setting up the river shove, so he played right into my mind set.
I think most people would 2bet this on the flop. Do you think he got worried about the draws, or was this his plan to wait for the turn. I timed down because of his non-existent turn 2bet and his 5% flop 3bet stats. I finally decided to call because of all the draws, thinking he would probably 2bet his sets and 2 pairs with such a wet board on the flop, and pocket sixes didn’t seem likely. Whoops.
How often do you do this play (delayed 2bet)? He gives me 25% pot odds on the Turn, which is fine with implied odds with at least a flush draw, probably the straight draw, too. And definitely with my hand. PokerTracker says I have 87% equity before it knows villain’s hand.For those of you with solvers, how often does your solver delay 2bet their sets on a connected 2 tone board? It definitely seems like a good way to get more money in the pot if you can get called by a worse hand like this time.
It seems to me he played it wrong, but he got all of my chips, so he’s got that going for him.
I’m not sure I would have played this the same way without top pair helping my draw. Would like to see what a solver thinks.Yatahay Network – 800/1600 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 7 players
MOUSE85 (UTG): 45.95 BB
NMA1986 (UTG+1): 52.7 BB
carbonchik (MP): 24.22 BB
NJOYCRYPTO (CO): 92.76 BB
jjjusmoney (BTN): 52.6 BB
APHEX04 (SB): 28.85 BB
FreeTupan (BB): 40.96 BB
7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, APHEX04 posts SB 0.5 BB, FreeTupan posts BB 1 BBPre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) MOUSE85 has Kc Jc
MOUSE85 raises to 2.5 BB from UTG7,
fold, fold, fold,
jjjusmoney on the Button calls 2.5 BB,
fold, fold
Nothing to see here, he could have 3bet me.Flop : (7.2 BB, 2 players) Tc 5d Jd
MOUSE85 bets 4.1 BB, 57%
jjjusmoney calls 4.1 BB
Top pair 2nd kicker with a backdoor flush draw. Happy to take it down now, but I want to keep in some of his junk. His cold call is FULL of hands I beat, and Ace Jack.Turn : (15.4 BB, 2 players) 6c
MOUSE85 bets 8.2 BB, 53%
jjjusmoney raises to 24.1 BB,
MOUSE85 raises to 39.25 BB and is all-in,
jjjusmoney calls 15.15 BB
I pick up my flush draw and he raises me? Time to slow down. Pocket sixes? Five Six? Ace X of clubs? Crap. Do I need to fold?
Seven Eight Nine completes the straight, so he could have 2 of those, and there are still diamonds and worse club draws.
I think I am winning more combos than losing. I need to call 16 to win 48 for 25% pot odds. I can call with 11 outs and some implied odds.
The min-raise all in was too aggro. I have no fold equity except for the fact that I am risking my tournament life, which isn’t a thing online. He’s only folding air.River : (93.9 BB, 2 players) As
I miss my flush and my set and am left with second pair. If I had just called the turn instead of shoving I would still have 15 Bigs, instead, the graph heads down and I have to go shovel snow. Sigh.MOUSE85 shows Kc Jc (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 46%, Flop 8%, Turn 18%)jjjusmoney shows Th Td (Three of a Kind, Tens) (Pre 54%, Flop 92%, Turn 82%)
jjjusmoney wins 93.9 BB
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3 Replies
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Eric I think you were destined to lose a lot of chips on this hand no matter what. On the turn you obviously can’t fold, so you can call or shove. If you just call, are you planning to check/fold on most turns? You only improve on clubs, jacks and kings, and as you point out some of even those cards will give your opponent’s range a better hand than yours anyway (bigger flushes, boating up, etc)
So since you cannot control whether they will put chips in with the strongest part of their range (they will do that no matter what) we can look at how we might get them to ALSO put chips in with a weaker part of their range, like draws and worse jacks, etc. I think shoving is the only way to do that, but it has the cost of you putting in your last chips and going home some percentage of the time.
So – the question is, is it worth weakening their range that gets it in by getting it in yourself? Or is folding the river (and getting bluffed some small portion of the time when we do) going to be more +EV in the long run? It’s a good question and probably depends on the assumptions you make about his ranges and how they would play the different parts of those ranges. To the Flopzillamobile @EANDERSON85 !
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You are definitely losing lots of chips in this hand. We just had a podcast episode about playing Out of Position (OOP) as the preflop aggressor. And I must say, I’ve been building a decent amount more flop checks into my approach in these spots. I think this is a spot where we can justify this action. When I look at solver results here, it is a mix with all of our KJs holdings, but the solver much prefers betting with hearts and spades and employs more check backs with clubs. When we do bet, it likes a smaller sizing.
When we take the flop cbet option here, I think we have no other choice but to take the line you take. We need to barrel the turn and we have too much equity to fold once raised. So we’re going broke.
But let’s explore that check line. We likely check call a 60% pot bet from button. We check call a pot sized bet on the turn. And check fold a river jam. We exit this hand with 20-24bb.
Now it is true, our hand is vulnerable to overcards, but the reason I like the check line here is that we’re only really vulnerable to a Q and A. So we don’t need THAT much protection.
But isn’t it harder to play without taking initiative? Yes, yes it is. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t the most optimal line to take. And won’t we be lost in the hand, unable to range our opponent because we didn’t bet the flop? I know that is a common thought process, but I tend to disagree. We’re ALREADY at that disadvantage. That is the nature of being OOP. Unless we think V is just going to bet every time we check, we still get a lot of info from them.
This doesn’t mean we check all the time with initiative. We still cbet lots. But we do it a bit less. And these kinds of protected top pair holdings combine with some of our sets and nut flush draws as some of the best candidates in my mind. They can hold up to double barrel line fairly easily, and lots of villains will check back rivers here with a large portion of their range. So I don’t think we get overbluffed and we often check down and win on rivers. I’ve seen lots of V’s overplay their Tx or worse Jx when we check this spot too. The player pool sees this check as overly weak, which can work to our advantage quite a bit.
There are others that will definitely disagree, but I’d encourage you to at least experiment with more checks when OOP and with the preflop lead. I’ve seen some good results in taking this line more. And I don’t think you’d go broke here if you took that line.
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We’ve all been there, wondering if Lady Luck just packed her bags and went on vacation. But hey, sometimes even the best hands get cracked.
In this situation, I usually take a deep breath, analyze where I went wrong (because there’s almost always a lesson hiding somewhere in the muck), and remind myself that even the poker gods take a nap now and then.
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