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Outs A Plenty
Late on Day 1 (four flights) of a two-day mystery bounty tournament. Ten-percent of each Day 1 flight make Day 2 and the money. All of the bounties are on Day 2.
Hero is the short stack at the table with T♥︎9♥︎ in the CO with 48,300 chips. The BB is 2,000.
Dinner break is 30 minutes away. I don’t want to limp into the dinner break just to bust on the first hand after.
UTG min raises. MP and HJ call. Hero calls. BTN folds. The SB completes and BB checks.
14,000 in the pot pre-flop. Six players seeing a flop.
Flop is A♥︎J♣︎8♥︎. Checks around to Hero.
I contemplate shoving, but could see another card for free and it seemed unlikely that I’m going to get 5 players to fold on a wet and dynamic board. Hero checks.
Turn is 5♠︎. SB bets 4,000, BB calls, and it folds around to Hero with a flush draw and open-ended straight draw. 15 outs. And now only two players to fold out.
If SB and BB fold, I go from 48,300 to 66,300. If one of them calls and I hit one of my 15 outs, I go to 96,600. Hero reshoves.
Bad play?
I guess my biggest mistake was not shoving on the flop. I know now via PokerCruncher that my equity plummets on the turn to 33% from 54% on the flop.
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