Keith Brandt 5-hour Coaching Package 
-
Picking off bluffs?
So this is a spot where I generally just fold. I follow the convention that when a villain wakes up on the river, they mostly just have it. But I still almost called here before I folded. Here’s the hand…I’m curious about whether you ever would try to call it off here.
Game Hand #930292299 – Tournament #25146686 – Holdem(No Limit) – Level 3 (1000.00/2000.00)- 2021/08/29 18:23:34 UTC
Table ’25’ 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: yopoker27 (199700.00)
Seat 2: aa_carl (200469.00)
Seat 3: Dev020620 (147496.00)
Seat 4: Gwydion (201245.00)
Seat 5: FiveByFive (242692.00)
Seat 6: AvocadoSocks (187682.00)
Seat 7: Basketballboy1 (336352.00)
Seat 8: Cecil2790 (186397.00)
Seat 9: Sunle (104299.00)
yopoker27 posts ante 300.00
aa_carl posts ante 300.00
Dev020620 posts ante 300.00
Gwydion posts ante 300.00
FiveByFive posts ante 300.00
AvocadoSocks posts ante 300.00
Basketballboy1 posts ante 300.00
Cecil2790 posts ante 300.00
Sunle posts ante 300.00
Cecil2790 posts the small blind 1000.00
Sunle posts the big blind 2000.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Main pot 2700.00
Dealt to FiveByFive [Ad Jc]
yopoker27 folds
aa_carl folds
Dev020620 folds
Gwydion folds
FiveByFive raises 4400.00 to 4400.00
AvocadoSocks folds
Basketballboy1 folds
Cecil2790 calls 3400.00
Sunle folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd 9d 8h]
Main pot 13500.00
Cecil2790 checks
FiveByFive bets 5400.00
Cecil2790 raises 15800.00 to 15800.00
FiveByFive calls 10400.00
*** TURN *** [Kd 9d 8h] [2c]
Main pot 45100.00
Cecil2790 checks
FiveByFive bets 18040.00
Cecil2790 calls 18040.00
*** RIVER *** [Kd 9d 8h 2c] [Jd]
Main pot 81180.00
Cecil2790 bets 147857.00 and is all-in
FiveByFive folds
Uncalled bet (147857.00) returned to Cecil2790
Cecil2790 does not show
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 81180.00
Board [Kd 9d 8h 2c Jd]
Seat 1: yopoker27 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 2: aa_carl folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 3: Dev020620 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 4: Gwydion folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 5: FiveByFive folded on the River
Seat 6: AvocadoSocks folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
Seat 7: Basketballboy1 (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
Seat 8: Cecil2790 did not show and won 81180.00
Seat 9: Sunle (big blind) folded on the Pre-Flop
So to the action. We open and get flatted by the small blind. Kd9d8h isn’t our favorite flop, but I really like the Ad here and while villain can have lots of good hands here, we have an advantage so I like a cbet. When we get Xraised in a 3bet pot, V’s range contracts significantly. I think we’re looking at 88/99/89s/JTs/JdTd, QdTd, QdJd, Td8d, 8d7d, and maybe some gutters with backdoors like QhJh.
We’re deep enough to call here. Because we have the Ad, it not only gives us nut flush draws, it also means that we’re ahead of all of Vs draws except pair + flush draws (10d8d, 8d7d being the most likely).
On the turn, I decided to bet small here again. I can represent the K and fold out some draws with the barrel, particularly the non-diamond straight draws. If I get x-raised again, V is very set heavy, and I’m ready to eject. But V flats again. You might disagree with this turn bet, and I’d understand that thinking. It isn’t conventional, but I think a small bet here can really help us on river diamonds. We are absolutely planning to barrel big on a river diamond if V calls our turn bet.
We get that diamond on the river. And into a pot of 40bb, V jams 74bb. So this is really an auto fold, which I did do. But I marked it for review and wanted to explore it a little more. It seems to me that V is only really representing two combos of value now (10d8d and 8d7d). I think sets raise the turn, gut shot straight draws fold the turn. I also think QdTd can’t make this kind of overshove without giving up a ton of potential value.
Those two diamond combos loom large and make a ton of sense. But we only need to be right 40% of the time to call here. We beat every other hand in my mind. But are there any other hands? Can we find any bluffs? Ultimately I think my initial fold reaction is the right one. It’s possible V turns some kind of hand like JT into a bluff, convinced that the showdown value is worthless against my line. Especially a hand like JxTd. But I think that is a pretty rare villain and most of the time we can narrow V down to those exact flush combos plus maybe a few of their overplayed sets.
What are your thoughts?
-
3 Replies
-
I see this as a SRP not a 3! pot. Ran this through Odin, it likes a fold to the flop raise 80% of the time with AdJc. When we do call and get checked to on the turn, it likes the small bet 50% of the time. On the Jd river, when villain shoves it likes a call with AdJc 100% of the time!! Interesting!
-
This is a very good point. I think I was going to post two hands. One was 3bet and this one, so I got mixed up when I headlined it. Interesting to hear that this is a call in this spot when you get there, but it likely should be a fold on the flop most of the time.
-
-
On this flop texture (wet and dynamic), I think theory prefers a big bet. If we think villain (or population without a specific read) overfolds to a small bet, then we can exploitatively bet small. Once we get check raised, then we’ve likely run into a V top of range or V with some skill. I prefer a fold here.
As played on the river, it’s a straightforward fold. I would need a very strong read of the V to make a call here.
Log in to reply.