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Pocket Pairs
<div>Pocket pairs can be a tricky hand to play. I have no idea how to play pocket pairs perfectly but this post is to help map it out and hopefully learn more by having you add your insights, comments, and examples. </div>
Pre-Flop
How often will I be dealt AA?
= 6 / 1326 = 0.45%
How often will I be dealt any big pair (AA – TT)?
= 30 / 1326 = 2.26%
How often will I be dealt any pair (AA – 22)?
= 78 / 1326 = 5.88%
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Example #1:
- Suppose you have 22 on the button and you raise to steal the blinds. Your biggest fear is seeing a flop and needing to hit a set. Unfortunately, the big blind decides to call.
How often will I flop a set?
- To do this, you need to use the (n choose k) method to calculate the combinations. We have been dealt 2 unique cards from the deck. With 50 cards left in the deck and 3 cards being shown on the flop, there is (50 choose 3) combinations or 19,600 unique flops. Now, you will completely miss the flop (48 choose 3) / (50 choose 3) or 17296 of the 19600 flops. This means that you don’t flop a set 88.24% and will flop a set the other 11.76% of the time.
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Example #2:
- Suppose you have 22 on the button and you raise to $10 to isolate a couple limpers and steal the blinds. Instead, the big blind decides to 3-bet to $60. The limpers fold. The pot size is $100. We need to call $50 more to see a flop.
What are pot odds?
- Since you will flop a set about 12% of the time, we need 9 to 1 pot odds to be break-even with calling. This usually won’t happen so you’re gonna need some implied odds. In this spot, we need to call $50 to win $100 which means we have 2 to 1 pot odds. When we flop a set, you need to get the pot size to $450 so that our pre-flop call is justified.
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Example #3:
- Suppose it’s the late stages of a tournament and you have pocket 88 on the button. Your plan is to raise the button and take down the blinds. You jam all-in for $100 with the following assumptions:
- your opponent will fold and lose 70%
- your opponent will call and win 20%
- your opponent will call and lose 10%
- the opponent will never fold a better hand than 88
What is your Relative Expected Value?
= (20%)($100) – (10%)(-$100) = $20 – $10 = $10
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1 Reply
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How did I miss this post?!?!?! Pocket pairs are so weird. As a beginner cash player used to deep stacks, I used to universally set-mine with 22-99 and play TT-AA for value as part of a linear value range. As I learned more about implied odds, stack sizes, and hand-ranging, it was fun developing different ways to play different PPs in different spots. What are some interesting ways that other players deploy PPs? no not you @FiveByFive I mean MORTAL players. Other than calling IP with 22-66 for instance.
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