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QQ vs. low wet board
Got in an ugly hand last night and still don’t know how I feel about my play! Local casino, Friday night $1-$2, my table broke and I got seated a a full (7 Max due to Covid) table. 2 regs I recognized. I’ve got $325 which is roughly equal to the Button stack as the high stack at the table. Others range from $150-$250. I don’t believe I go enough to be considered a reg. Always a lot of limping at these tables. Literally my first hand at this table. I’m in the HJ with QhQc. The regs are in the blinds. 2 limps to me. I open to $12 which is my standard and not unusual at this casino. I always open the same, but no one at this table would know that. CO fold, Button Calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP3 calls, LJ folds. 4 to the flop, $45 after the rake. The flop is 4c,5h,7d. Checked to me, I bet $20. Button calls, others fold. I know my bet might be a bit small here, but multiway in a low connected board it is my understanding of what I should do (don’t know if I am correct).
Button is a young woman who looks very serious and a snap judgement is that she is an experienced player. She has the full sized headphones on and has not interacted or even made eye contact with anyone in the short time I have been there. That is the only read I could get.
$84 (after rake) to the turn. 6d with 4c,5h,7d on board. OESD with a back door flush draw. I take about 30 seconds and check. She takes about 30 seconds and bets $75. I tank, trying to figure out why she would have a 3 or an 8. 33 and 88 seem logical. Maybe A8 and A3 suited. She might have raised on the flop with a set, so I am discounting (but not eliminating) these except for 66 which hit on the turn. AA and KK may have raised earlier, and I block QQ. She could also have A4, A5, A6, and A7 but would she make such a polarized bet with them? (and I obviously am ahead of them). Could b an over pair under queens. Then there are the pure bluffs as I showed weakness, and these might include a lot of over cards that she decided to float.
When I run the hand through Flopzilla giving her a 27% calling range on the preflop and filtering down for what she might have called on the flop and for what I think she could make this bet with, I end up with 32% equity at this point. Not that I was able to calculate that at the time. I’m getting just over 3-1 odds on the call so it seems just barely correct.
But my gut told me that such a polarized bet leaned heavily toward the bluff. I can’t see why should would do that if she had the straight and expect to get paid. Hence with the straight discounted, my equity goes way up.
I made the call. River was the Jc. I turn over the QQ and she mucked.
Opinions on whether I played this correctly or just got lucky?
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2 Replies
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great post @7High11 I think one of the main factors on the turn is what portion of the deck will help us on the river and how likely is the player to bluff if they are still behind your QQ – being OOP stinks, especially with a one pair hand!
Curious what our sizing should be on the flop with that dynamic – it’s different than a standard line because of the limp action and being OOP. Maybe we can ask @coachgaz in our next study group!
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