[fivebyfive]

So first, gross. I think I like a flat, even multiway in this spot with these stack depths and against these positions. True, UTG has some robust numbers, but we don’t really have enough hands on this other than to lead us to believe they may be a little wide. But probably not enough stats to commit our stack in a spot where we can see three so cheaply.

So flop comes. Gin! And we see a small bet and a call. If this is heads up, I’m calling all day. But multiway from these positions, I like to check raise a decent amount of the time. We can get called or raised by strong single clubs (like JcJx, TcTx, 9c9x), plus KQ, AQ, KK, AA, not to mention the sets that are there. All that said, a flat definitely is part of our approach, especially if we have aggro opponents who we don’t suspect will check through on the turn.

Now the board pairs. Sigh. We’re still not losing to much, but we no longer have the nuts. They bet super small, and this feels kinda milky, but it could also be something like AA/KK trying to extract value from our own Qx and single clubs. So I still don’t mind the check raise, but we go pretty huge. We’re short enough that I think we can xR to something like 8.5bb and evaluate.

When we get called on the T, it is very scary. We have a ton more flushes and 6x here, and they can’t have the naked Ac either. So when they call this raise, they’re weighted much more toward value. AhQh probably still calls this, but they can’t be very happy about it and might rightfully find a fold. AA and KK seem still possible that we beat too, but we block AA.

And the river double pairs the board. Our hand is nothing more than a bluff catcher. Everything until now has seemed fine, but I do think this hand goes off the rails on the river. We can hope to see a cheap showdown and win a nice pot against AA/KK/AQ and weaker flushes that check back. I can’t imagine any of those hands calling our shove. So I think we have to check here and hope to get to showdown. And we likely, unfortunately, need to fold to a V river shove. There just aren’t enough bluffs.

[eanderson85]

Why is Betting 11.9 into a pot of 16.3 (73%) on the Turn a huge bet?
I am betting 3/4 to win 7/4, meaning I need to be successful 3/7 (43%) of the time.

They need to call 3/4 to win 10/4, meaning they need 30% (3/10) equity to call. Trips call with ~20% equity, 2-pairs call with 9% equity, and flushes and flush draws call drawing dead.
There is one pair of 6s, 3 pairs of Queens, and 3 pairs of 4s that beat us for 7 combos.
Add in whatever Q6, Q4, and 64 combos you think UTG8 will open. I didn’t add any.

Are these 7 combos over 57% of their range (Remember, we need to win 43% of the time)?
57% of X = 7, X=13, so only 6 other hands need to call for equilibrium. If they call more than 13 combos, we win.

I agree the river was bad. I always feel like I need to continue the aggression after a 3bet or a check-raise. I think I can cure that by trapping more.

Please help me if my math or reasoning is wrong.

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