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Raise, call or fold? No good options! (WSOP online bracelet event)
I went out to Las Vegas last summer (July 2021) to play the first week of the WSOP online bracelet series. This spot came up in one of the first few (15-minute) levels of the opening event so I had no useable information on the villains. The $500 event had 2 rebuys so I am looking/willing to take thinner lines especially on this first bullet to try and build a stack.
This was a weird spot where I considered all options. I don’t like any of them which should usually default to a fold but I am curious to hear what line you prefer and why? If you are raising, what is your sizing? And do you call or fold to a 4-bet jam?
40/80 level
UTG (18,000) raises 200
Hero (27,500) calls UTG+1 with Qc 10c
SB (19,500) raises to 650
UTG calls. Hero calls.
Flop (2,030): Kh Qh 10h
SB leads 650
UTG raises 1,752
Hero ?
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4 Replies
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I think when I am playing my A game I am folding here. With two people interested in a 3! pot with so many hands that could have gotten home, plus the number of draws that could easily complete with two cards, I think this may be too gambly a spot to continue. Your Q outs could be dirty (as you would lose to KQ) and possibly even your T outs (KT). I don’t see two pair good here often enough, I don’t see much fold equity given the interest in the pot, and I don’t see the drawing odds as being sufficient to warrant putting more money in. I think you should be able to find a better spot later, particularly if you can get some play style reads on your opponents.
my 2nl.
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Wow. So gross. This smashes the SB 3! range and, like you, the 3! calling range for UTG is going to be heavily loaded with some smaller pairs and suited cards. And there’s no way those smaller pairs are raising here. Honestly, I’d like this slightly better if it was AhQhTh, but with the Ah unaccounted for, there is just so much AhXh in the UTG raising range. I can imagine a world where SB is overplaying AK and UTG has something like JhJx or AhQx, putting us ahead, but I think those are few and far between. And even our outs may be counterfeit if we’re up against KQ/KK etc. We still have more than 300bb right now and we’ll find better spots. I’m reluctantly folding.
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@FiveByFive The reason I shared this hand was my initial thought in-game was the opposite…the Ah unaccounted for could potentially give me a very thin equity advantage. When I ran the hand through poker cruncher later, even if I give one of my opponents (in a heads-up pot) only Ah10x+ and Ah2x-Ah5x (which is an absolute best case scenario for me) my hand is still only 48% to win.
Add in all Axhh combos, KK, QQ & 10-10 … and another opponent … and we are crushed!
I thought it was interesting because I was clearly overvaluing the concept of an unblocker in-game but after reviewing the spot, it wasn’t really close.
I did end up calling the raise on the flop (SB also called) and then folded turn unimproved. There is no doubt my flop call was a mistake. As @elvida pointed out, our outs were not clean.
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These are such tough folds to make in practice. And trying to parse out multiway 3! spots with blockers in real time is about as hard as it gets. So good to review these spots because they’re the invisible chips we lose.
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