[taylormaas]

I mean, you list out the worst case scenario in the PokerStove range and the button is still in good shape. Add in some worse hands, and potentially discount some of the better hands based on your previous comment (overvalues top pair abd slow plays) and this just seems like a terrible spot to fold top two pair.

[jim]

I wonder if he is often just completing in the SB pre facing a button limp with TT or JJ – you know the player best, but that seems very passive for a four-handed game. That makes me inclined to agree with you about the FD or maybe even some of the less-blocked 2pr holdings that he might also bet pot on those streets given the runout. They are less common but I think they would be part of some players ranges in that spot. Interesting hand! I love spots like this – what would YOUR range be in this spot as the small blind?

[yamel]

• Great question Jim. Not too many hands I’d lead flop with and follow with a pot sized bet. If pressed I would say a set or two pair wanting to make a draw pay, or a flush draw without show down value. Like KQ or JQ.

[fivebyfive]

I am incapable of folding in this spot as button. Sets seem unlikely and even if against the one I don’t block, I’m still live. If we’re going to limp call from the button with 89, we’re doing it to hit a hand just like this and target the strong range of the preflop big blind raiser. There are spots where I can fold top two facing this big of a bet, but this board and situation don’t seem like it.

[arw]

Hero has 77 in the big blind and 85 bb effective.

After the pre-flop action, there is 9 bb in the pot and it’s 3 ways.

The flop is (9d 8d 5s)

The small blind leads 9 bb and gets two callers. (VERY INTERESTING)

The turn is (9d 8d 5s 2s)

The small blind bets 36 bb. Both players fold.

___________________________________________

This board is very connected and draw heavy. Your opponents could have a wide range pre-flop since they got in cheaply until you spoiled the party with your squeeze to 3 bb. The flop action tells us a lot.

• The small blind bet full pot into two people who have better position. We can assume this isn’t a complete bluff.
• The big blind (you) flat called a full size bet with another player behind who could potentially (fold, call, raise).
• The button called a full size bet and is willing to play the turn against two players, the button didn’t raise the flop.

This flop isn’t ideal for 77. It’s painful to fold 77 on this flop because you have a draw to the nuts but here is why I would fold and not call 9 bb :

• The # of safe cards on the turn and river. What cards do you want to see where you think your pair of 77 is the best hand? You don’t want to see any diamonds, you don’t love it when the board pairs, you might not want to see another 7, and you don’t want to see any broadway cards like an A, K, Q, J, T.
• The Pot Odds. You opponent led 9 bb into 9 bb. This means you have 1:1 odds and need to win 50% to break even.

• Pocket 7’s is 62% to win against (3d2d) for a flush draw.
• Pocket 7’s is 60% to win against (6d2d) for a flush draw and straight draw.
• Pocket 7’s is 46% to win against (AdKd) for a flush draw w/ over-cards.
• Pocket 7’s is 23% to win against (9s8s) for top two pair.
• Pocket 7’s is 23% to win against (5c5h) for bottom set.

[yamel]

Great take here and I agree…I hadn’t thought that even the 7 would be bad card…so many bad cards. Still hurt to fold but someone left to act definitely sealed it for me.