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River Bet With 2nd Pair On Coordinated Board
Poker After Dark on PokerGO. Season 13 (2021) The Nosebleeds Episode 1
200/400/400 6-handed cash. Both players deep stack nearly 300bb effective.
LJ KhJd open to 1,000, SB Td8d 3bet to 4,400, BB fold, LJ call.
Flop (9,600) Jh7h4d. SB cbet 2,100, LJ call.
Turn (13,800) Qd. SB cbet 5,700, LJ quickly call.
River (25,200) 8h. SB ck, LJ bet 12,400, SB fold after some thought.
Was this a good river bet with second pair? LJ blocks the heart flushdraw, making it less likely he is beaten by a flush. T9 got there. But after semibluffing with that on flop and turn, does SB really ck river? SB could have taken this line with AA, KK (blocked), QQ, JJ (blocked), AQ, KQ (blocked), AJ (blocked), QJ and all these hands except maybe AJ would likely call. What better hands for SB fold? What worse hands for SB call?
Should SB fire the river again? LJ could have taken this line on flop and turn with AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ, QJ and with this coordinated board he could have targeted those combos. SB does not block the heart flush draw. This would turn his pair of 8s into a bluff, of course. What better hands would fold? Do queen and jack pairs fold to the triple barrel?
Note that Range Trainer Pro shows that in the LJ, KJo is 100% fold to the SB 3bet at 100bb. The SB player had been fairly active but not insane up to this point in the session.
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1 Reply
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I think a big question is whether the LJ is betting for value or as a bluff. He has the Kh, which decreases the number of flushes the SB can have, given that SB 3b (although if he knows that SB is 3b T8s, that opens up a ton of potential combos in that range). If he is value betting what worse hand is he hoping will call? If he/she is bluffing, is this really the size that will do it? And what is he/she targeting? I guess a Q, but again I would think he would want to size up, particularly as I am not sure that will get the job done and I don’t know what he/she does if the SB raises/jams.
I think that the SB has a tough decision on the River when that 3rd heart comes in when not holding a heart and only third pair. Bluffing away the equity on third pair by barrelling again, when you could easily be blasting into a made flush or a set of Qs or Js, is probably not a profitable move.
So maybe this all comes down to fate favors the less timid?
The ranges are pretty wide for both players (bold 3b from the SB with T8s, brave call with KJo). Probably gets them into decisions that are tough and unnecessary. It is my understanding that in these games the producers push them to play splashy and wide to give more hands which probably leads to some weirdness in their play and perhaps a greater propensity for atypical lines.
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