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River Decision in ICM Spot
WSOP Main Event
15 players remain. Last hand of Day 7.
Prize Pool
1. $12.1M
2. $6.5M
3. $4M
4. $3M
5. $2.4M
6. $1.85M
7. $1.425M
8. $1.125M
9. $900K
10-11. $700K
12-13. $535K
14-15. $430.2K
Stacks
108.0M
75.5M
70.8M
67.9M
55.0M
50.1M
31.0M
27.4M
21.8M
17.5M
14.8M
14.3M
11.7M
8.7M
Blinds 300K/600K/600K
CO 27.4M
BB 55.0M before posting blind and ante
CO Kh9s bet 1.2M
BB JhTc call
Flop (3.1M) Ts8s5h
BB checkTh
CO bet 1.2M
BB call
Turn (5.6M) 7s
BB check
CO bet 3.75M
BB call
River (13.1M) Ac
BB check
CO bet 8.2M
BB fold
This is a fascinating hand, with a lot of depth to it. These two stacks in the middle of the pack have large bubble factors working against them, with the final table drawing near. Bet sizing was getting smaller than recommended by GTO strategy, which is correct in high bubble factor situations like this. In fact, everything should be scaled down. If ordinary strategy is to jam, just bet big instead. Instead of big bets, use small bets. Instead of small bets, check. Instead of raises, call. Instead of call, fold. Obviously this isn’t to rigidly adhered to, but it’s a rule of thumb.
Another thing that could be on the players’ minds is that every pay jump could be life changing.
The preflop action seems pretty standard, except for the 2bb sizing of the open raise. In a purely chip EV scenario, 2.2-2.5bb would be more standard 45bb effective.
According to Hold’em Resource Calculator (HRC), the CO open range in this spot is 44+, 33:0.992, 22:0.326, A2s+, A7o+, A6o:0.678, A5o, A4o:0.470, K9s+, K8s:0.999, K7s:0.998, K6s, K5s:0.998, K4s:0.993, K3s:0.296, K2s:0.255, KTo+, K9o:0.955, K8o:0.001, K7o:0.003, Q9s+, Q8s:0.999, Q7s:0.993, Q6s:0.994, Q5s:0.964, Q4s:0.008, Q2s:0.001, QTo+, Q9o:0.239, J9s+, J8s:0.999, J7s:0.969, J5s:0.040, JTo, J9o:0.262, T9s, T8s:0.999, T7s:0.747, T6s:0.039, T5s:0.008, T4s:0.002, T2s:0.001, T9o:0.932, T8o:0.001, 98s:0.997, 97s:0.943, 96s:0.001, 87s:0.954, 86s:0.326, 85s:0.003, 76s:0.967, 75s:0.020, 65s:0.955, 64s:0.005, 54s:0.564.
The BB calling range in HRC is 66:0.059, 55:0.971, 44:0.308, 33:0.183, 22:0.508, AJs:0.075, ATs:0.972, A9s, A8s:0.760, A7s:0.904, A6s:0.699, A5s:0.943, A4s:0.997, A3s:0.815, A2s:0.700, AJo:0.021, ATo:0.952, A9o:0.999, A8o:0.980, A7o:0.790, A6o:0.458, A5o:0.986, A4o:0.554, A3o:0.123, A2o:0.339, KQs:0.999, KJs:0.952, KTs:0.966, K9s:0.540, K8s:0.560, K7s:0.403, K6s:0.505, K5s, K4s:0.949, K3s:0.990, K2s:0.999, KQo:0.944, KJo, KTo:0.927, K9o:0.915, K8o:0.765, K7o:0.996, K6o:0.999, K5o:0.401, K4o:0.969, K3o:0.168, K2o:0.128, QJs:0.924, QTs:0.999, Q9s:0.004, Q8s:0.961, Q7s:0.992, Q6s, Q5s:0.982, Q4s-Q3s, Q2s:0.960, QJo, QTo:0.989, Q9o:0.803, Q8o:0.959, Q7o:0.961, Q6o:0.538, Q5o:0.021, Q4o:0.482, JTs:0.160, J9s:0.993, J8s:0.997, J7s-J5s, J4s:0.994, J3s:0.993, J2s:0.994, JTo:0.866, J9o:0.999, J8o:0.989, J7o:0.552, J6o:0.015, T9s:0.568, T8s, T7s:0.988, T6s-T5s, T4s:0.990, T3s, T2s:0.999, T9o, T8o:0.951, T7o:0.474, T6o:0.001, T4o:0.001, 98s:0.997, 97s-95s, 94s:0.996, 93s:0.984, 92s:0.997, 98o, 97o:0.992, 96o:0.086, 87s:0.976, 86s:0.999, 85s:0.994, 84s, 83s:0.998, 82s:0.999, 87o:0.996, 86o, 85o:0.116, 73s+, 72s:0.987, 76o:0.999, 75o:0.804, 74o:0.004, 62s+, 65o:0.999, 64o:0.968, 63o:0.001, 52s+, 54o:0.999, 53o:0.159, 43s, 42s:0.984, 43o:0.006, 42o:0.001, 32s.
Screenshots of the opening ranges are attached.
The flop gave the BB top pair, medium kicker out of position on a loosely connected flop. The CO has a backdoor K-high flush draw, a backdoor open ended straight draw, and an overcard. According to GTO+, which does not account for ICM considerations, the BB checks range. The CO C-bets big a bit over half the time and small a bit under half the time. CO never checks back. Given the ICM implications, it might be wise for the CO to favor a smaller bet, which is what the CO did in this hand. Then, the offsuit JTo almost always calls; the raising frequency is negligible under chip EV and should never be considered given the bubble factor. The BB should not consider a fold here, in spite of the ICM implications.
The turn started to straighten out the board, and completed a spade draw. The solver actually wants the BB to lead out with a small bet here most of the time, checking part of the time. Given the ICM implications, the BB check is reasonable. The solver recommends the large bet the CO made about 30% of the time and to check 70% of the time with his holding. Given the ICM implications, the most optimal play might’ve been to check back. He turned additional equity, and risks being blown off of it with this bet. After the CO turn barrel, the solver recommends the BB to call 100% with his top pair.
The river was a board-changing offsuit ace. The SPR on the river is 1.5. The solver recommends the BB check 100% of the time. After the BB check, the solver recommends the CO go all-in 100% of the time. It doesn’t recommend any other bet sizing. Note the attached screenshot from GTO+. All of the K9 combos with the nine of spades are jammed 100% of the time. The rest are checked 100% of the time except for the Ks9h, which is jammed 45% and checked 55%. The Q9o combos are the same way. The nine of spades blocks the flushes and also many straights, making it less likely BB holds these premium hands that won’t fold. The jam also represents the ace that connected on the river.
As played the CO chose a sizing of 8.2M on the river instead of the jam. This again could be scaling things down because of bubble factor. We can’t know but there’s also the possibility that the CO player had a live read.
The solver then recommends the BB fold the JTo 100% of the time. The CO could have taken this line with many ace combos. The solver does not have an answer for the BB responding to a smaller river bet because the CO never makes the smaller bet. Range Trainer Pro has a recommendation for a 15% pot bet on the river for the CO. The BB with JTo would then call more often than fold. But there are no solver solutions for the bet that was made in this Main Event hand.
A call and a loss would have left the BB player with plenty of chips to continue being competitive in the tournament. Would you have made the call on the river if you were the BB player? Why or why not?
Would you have done anything else differently than the players in this hand?
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1 Reply
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I would probably fold the river as the BB. I would think that a lot of opener’s bluffs would contain As. Even though he may not have the flush he still got there on the river with the Ace. When medium stacked your bubble factor is higher than the small stacks or the large stacks. Bluff catching is risky. Like you said everything is diminished. A normal call becomes a fold.
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