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Should I stay or should I go now?
From what I’ve been learning with all of you I’m much more confident in most decisions I make now, be they right or wrong! But this hand had me scratching my head almost from the start.
$15 +$1.50 PKO on Ignition. 2-1/2 hours in but registration is still open for an hour, so no ICM considerations. $11 prize pool, $4 to the progressive bounty. 20k starting chips. I’ve picked up $4 in bounties so far.
I’m in the CO with 78 BB. Villain is UTG (full ring – 9) with 93 BB. Don’t remember exactly but I believe I was in the top 25% stack size, and am 3rd largest at the table. Had about 40 hands on villain and he was running pretty high, something like 40/20/8 (just guessing from memory).
UTG opens for 3BB, folds to me in the CO with JsJd, and I raise to 9BB. To my surprise the button calls from a 98 BB stack. Everyone else folds back to UTG who 4B to 21.5BB. There is very little 4 betting in a low stakes Ignition tournament, and this almost always means AA, KK, or QQ. But given his tendencies I didn’t feel like I should fold. But I’ve also got the Button behind me who could also have a big hand (I don’t remember his/her stats), but he/she would likely have 4B a pair stronger than JJ. I put in an uncomfortable call for 12.5BB. To my chagrin the Button also calls. I am now the effective stack at 56.5BB and pot is 66.8 BB (less than 1:1 SPR).
The flop is KsTsAs to give me 4th pair with a gut shot royal (which also includes 2nd nut flush draw and a Broadway draw). UTG bets 26.67 BB. I’ve got one out to the stone nuts, 8 other outs to the 2nd nut flush and another 3 Qs to a Broadway which is likely either good or a chop. I could already be facing a flush or 3 of a kind. I’d beat all flushes but 1 if i flush, and beat all sets if I flush or catch the straight. But I’m likely am dead-to-rights to at least a set if I miss.
I half-heartedly convince myself that this is too strong to fold at any point with this SPR, so I use whatever fold equity I might have (and I know it is not a large amount) and shove for my remaining 56.5 BB (only about a 2x raise). Button folds. UTG calls.
I was pleasantly surprised to see villain turn over Ah Kc for 2 pair and no Qs (at that point). In essence that gave me 2 more outs in the other 2 Js (unless another A or K hits in which case I only have 1 out). Turn is the Qc giving me a Broadway.
River is the 9h giving me a pot of 170.9 BB and the lead in the tournament at that point. But results aside, I’m not at all comfortable with how I played the hand though I really don’t think there was much else I could do. I felt like I was handcuffed at almost every decision (except my initial 3B).
Should I have folded JJ to the 4B with another player behind me? Should I have folded to a 1/3rd pot Cbet with so many outs? I felt pretty strongly at that point that he had a set of A or K and any of my outs beat that. In the end I believe the low SPR forced me to shove the turn, but I don’t really know if the SPR plays the same role with a draw that it does with a made hand. Love to hear some words of wisdom on this one!
Ended up in 13th place with $44 in prize money and about $24 in bounties (lost all in with A9 suited against an A4 off).
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8 Replies
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I like the 3bet at this stack depth. Our hand is strong enough to 3bet for value and we prefer to play heads-up. My charts say that JJ is a mix of 3bet and call.
The button calling is something that we wanted to discourage with the 3bet. But it’s not shocking for low stakes players to call too wide.
UTG 4bet is strong. V is betting into 2 players and reopening the action, when they could have called and see a flop. The 4bet sizing is on the small size given the BN cold call.
But I don’t like this call for a few reasons. We aren’t closing the action. The BN flat of your 3bet caps his range but I’ve seen Iggy player do the strange back jams.
A balanced 4bet range would contain bluffs like AQo and A5s. Most V at these stakes are not including these type of bluffs. I agree with your observation that 4bets are almost always QQ+. Is the 4bet ever TT? (I vote no).
Finally, you don’t cover either opponent. This means their bounties are not in play. But yours is. Being able to collect a bounty gives you extra incentive to play for all the chips. But this isn’t the case here.
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Thanks. I tend to agree, which is why I think I posted this. I really was surprised when he turned over “just” AK for two pair. It is the only other hand I can think of that a player at those stakes will 4 bet. Last week when I played in the practice round that Chris has to use for his deep dives I cold called a 4 bet with QQ, but was also thinking at that time that even that was a mistake (it was!). I do get your point that villain reopening the action points even more strongly toward them having KK or AA. I think what swayed me was his stats, even though it was only 40 hands. I know I could have folded it to someone with tight stats.
Aside from that I am interested in knowing if anyone has thoughts on the issue of whether the SPR has the same effect on a strong draw as it does on a made hand. My understanding is that once the SPR (the turn in this case not preflop) gets so low you should continue with almost all your “made hands” even if they are not at the top of your range. Obviously a strong draw is not a made hand. Does the same concept apply for a strong draw? This hand may not be the perfect example of the situation but the question came to me as an “abstract” while I was writing the original post.
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So this is a gross spot preflop. The GTO model would have you mostly folding JJ here, but I don’t think our opponents are playing GTO. The BTN is likely way too wide here and the question for me is UTG aware enough to squeeze more once BTN makes this play? Do we see AQ or TT in their 4b range even though we think they’re incredibly tight at these stakes with 4bets? I’m tempted to fold this pre with the action still left behind me. But if I get to a flop, I’m playing this exactly like you do.
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I have no strategic value to add to what has already been said. FYI I would have folded pre.
I want to give you Kudos for the way you study the game. Many people would have won the big pot and felt entitled to it then forgotten it completely. You, on the other hand, realized that you were in troublesome spots and wanted clarity on the decision regardless of the results. Keep it up!
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I think the 3bet is small. A pot sized bet gives your opponent 33% odds to call (which preflop hands have more than 33% equity?), and more clearly defines their 4bet (plus it’s faster and easier to smash the “pot” button.) It is much easier to base your bet size on a fraction of the pot than some preset number of chips, as you will face wide variety of situations. Plus, players unwilling to learn the science of poker will try to get reads out of your bet sizes that aren’t there, and are easier to exploit.
In this situation, you would have probably still gotten 4bet. Given population tendencies, this is a fold. Given villain tendencies and the assumption he is playing looser (aka adding your bounty in chips to the pot odds) to isolate your bounty, I can see a call.
See the free poker math course by splitsuit (dot) com (slash) lesson.
Postflop, I love the implied odds of a royal draw. You either hit the stone-cold nuts, the nut flush, or the nut straight, and most players’ have difficulty folding the second nuts. Did I mention blockers?
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Thanks all. The preflop fold seems about unanimous! Folding a premium pair preflop is one of the very disciplined moves that I think makes a good player into a stronger player. It’s one I know I have to work on, and this helps drive it home for me!
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Two comments on the podcast of this hand.
1) I was very disappointed with the lack of references to The Clash during the podcast
2) The discussion of 4Bet calling range had me looking at charts which did show a smattering of pairs, suited connecters and suited aces calling (without the 3rd player in the hand who I couldn’t get to call) admittedly this isn’t a likely GTO situation and maybe that is why the conversation had a lot of doubting the existence of a 4Bet calling range I assume the other stuff is to balance the calls with AA AKs and some KK.
No idea if the attachment will work
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I know, right? How can you even say “Should I stay or should I go now?” without doing it in the Clash’s cadence! Thanks for posting this chart. And thanks to Jim, Rob and Taylor for the very detailed podcast! I thought there was so much wisdom in there I’ve listened to it twice! The real gem for me was Taylor’s idea of NOT shoving on the turn on the small chance that the turn checked through. My thinking was “Since there is no way I am ever folding I might as well just put it on in” without considering that I might not have to.
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