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Standard c-bet or far from it?
I ran this one by some very good MN MTT players (John Reading, Max Havlish, Matt Mlsna & Rob O’Connell) and it generated 8 hours of responses in our group text chain so it was as interesting of a spot as I thought it might be.
We are ITM $80 NL tourney on ACR. Pay jumps are relatively flat as about 50/600 remain. Hero has 155K. V has 145K. No reads and I don’t use a HUD.
4/8K level + antes
Hero opens LP to 22,500 with Ad Qd
V defends BB.
Flop (58K): Kd 10d 9x
V checks
Hero bets 24,000
V shoves. Hero goes into the tank.
At first glance, this seems like a standard c-bet. In hindsight, I don’t think that is the case. As played, I don’t think we can ever fold here (or can we?) but the debate over this hand was whether or not to bet flop and if we bet, what is the right sizing?
Even after 8 hours of discussion, I still don’t think I know the answer. Look forward to the responses!
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5 Replies
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Very interesting spot. Can’t wait for all the comments.
My initial reaction is that with a close to 2 spr on the flop, V can go with any Kx hands. If I cbet, I’d want to make it big enough that I can interpret a jam as 2 pair or better. So I would c-bet 35-40k to make decisions easier. As played V can interpret our c bet as weak and could have draws on this wet board to bluff with. So agree it’s an uncomfortable call.
I do like a check back on flop best given the spr. We have A high that could be good if they are on a draw and could improve to the nuts with a diamond. Love seeing a free card in this spot. And when we hit the flush, we can get it in on later streets given the low spr.
If we had been deeper, then I see needing to build pot on flop to get stacks in by river or make a paired hand fold by river. But no need to bet three streets here.
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Good stuff @yamel
I am still ranking our flop options in the same order you are: 1.) check 2.) larger c-bet 3.) small c-bet
With that in mind, which hands are better to check vs. hands that are better to bet
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@yamel has correctly identified the stacks sizes in play as an important factor here.
4/8k level: Hero covers the Villains 145K stack (18BB). Hero open (of 22,500 is 2.8bbs. At this depth, I prefer a smaller raise size of 2-2.4bbs. This keeps the BB calling range wider and keeps SPR higher.
Flop Kd 10d 9x
BB would often 3bet with most pairs and AK. So Hero has the range advantage overall and more sets. BB may play more offsuit hands than Hero, so BB may have more 2 pair combinations. Straight combos may be even. So nut advantage seems fairly even.
Being in position with the range advantage, Hero can cbet frequently. Without a significant nut advantage and SPR ~2.2, cbet shouldn’t be too large. About 40% pot seems good.
Holding AdQd, hero should consider checking. This hand has a lot of showdown value. It doesn’t need much protection. Checking some nut flush draws protects your checking range. Hands like As5d benefit more from betting.
I prefer a check here. Even if BB leads on a blank turn, we have enough equity to call to see the river card.
After choosing to cbet and facing the jam, this is comfortable call. With 2 cards to come with the nut flush and straight draw and an over, this is a spot that I am willing to stack off.
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Great stuff @Binkley
We should be c-betting AdQx and AxQd but checking back AdQd?
Also, what about back door flush AQs ?
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I made a typo in my original response. I meant “Hands like Ad5d benefit more from betting”.
Weaker Ax benefit the most from cbetting. So the weakest AdXd (Ad2d,Ad6d) make better betting hands. The stronger hands with good draws make better checks. AdQd, AdJd, and backdoor AQs,AJs are great check back candidates. If action goes check, BB leads. There are a lot of turn cards that allow us to comfortably continue.
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