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The nut flush draw dilemma
Nut flush draws are definitely a weak spot in my strategy. I hear and read so much about playing them aggressively, but when i do I just seem to lose money hand over fist. Maybe it’s because I have a bias toward only remembering the losses?
Ignition $15 plus $1.50 9 person Sit’n’go triple up (top 3 get $15 each). Second hand of the tournament. 10/20 blinds, 1500 starting, so 75BB deep. I’m in the SB. UTG opens to 2X. +1 calls, fold, fold, Hijack calls, CO calls, button folds, I call from the SB with A4clubs, BB folds. Not an unusual Ignition hand going 5 ways to the flop. I know a lot of people like to 3B with suited wheel aces, but I only like to do it from late position. Especially with 4 people already in the pot. On this site l’m likely to get at least 3 calls from a standard size 3B and I don’t think that is great for me from OOP. Should I consider a really large 3B, or even a fold?
Flop is 3c, Ts,4d to give me 2nd pair, back door wheel draw and back door nut flush draw (and back door straight flush draw). I donk 4BB into 11BB pot. I don’t donk much, but with 2 really low cards this definitely hits my range better, and i do have a pair with backdoor equity. UTG calls, +1 calls, 2 folds. If the bet is okay, was it too small?
3 way to the turn, 23BB pot, (52 BB effective behind). Turn is 6c giving me the nut flush draw. Honestly i think i misread this in real time to think that it also gave me a wheel gutshot, which it does not. The voice in my head is saying “you need to be more aggressive with nut flush draws!”. I bet 17.25 BB into the 23 BB pot. UTG folds, +1 shoves (we have the same number of chips). I called (I think on tilt out of frustration with these damn nut flush draws). He turns over TdJd for top pair. River is the 6s giving me 6’s and 4’s and him 10’s and 6’s. Out of tournament.
Assuming this was a mistake somewhere down the line, exactly where was it? I had hoped the turn bet was going to get all folds. I guess I expected a top pair to fold, and felt like i was representing a small set (3s or 4s). Should 10 J be calling or folding there? I suspect the solver will say it is. Even if I expect they are going to call (which I guess is likely on Ignition) is it still a good bet to build the pot with the nut flush draw? Was the turn bet the issue, or was calling the shove a mistake? With his shove there is 92BB in the middle. My call of 52 more BB made it 144 BB total or slightly less than 3:1 when in reality my chances of hitting the flush a 5.1:1. But in theory another 4 and possibly any other ace would give me the hand, so that is 5 more outs. Running it through Flopzilla gives me 32% equity on the turn against his specific hand – (clearly he could have had a set already though). Then again, he could have been on a draw as well.
Help please!
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6 Replies
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Interesting hand for sure…I used to play nut flush draws very fast, but have since adjusted to have the chance to overflush people (especially when we are deeper).
In your example, I do like a raise pre-flop with so many callers you can do well thinning the field and playing vs fewer players, but calling isn’t bad. I’d hate folding pre.
On the flop I don’t like the lead – maybe heads up where you are worried it checks back and your opponent realizes too much equity. But when we are multi-way we need a much stronger hand to lead out, especially in early position, and you don’t need to win that often. I’d be checking range in this spot for pot control and more fold equity with check raises with the strongest of hands. Our hand here is too in-between and i rather be in bluff catching mode. Check and evaluate what they do.
On the turn I don’t think you can fold and sleep at night with a pair plus nut draw. It’s just that with some pot control and playing a bit slower multi-way maybe you don’t lose the entire stack. Or if you are going to go really fast, then it would be 3! pre, small c bet and blast away at the turn to really build a story where top pair can fold.
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Before I comment on the specifics of the hand, I’m interested in hearing any reads you have on the player pool for this event (Ignition $15 Triple-up).
– Would you guess the average player is calling too much or folding too much to 3bets?
– Are they thinking in ranges? Do they think about their opponents range and how the board interacts with it?
– How often are they folding top pair on the flop? On the turn?
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As I think you know, the player pool here runs the gamut, from total fish to a few sophisticated players. I play 2 $7 tournaments for every $15 i play, so my reads may be skewed, but my sense is people way overcall 3Bs.
Very few of them are probably thinking in ranges, so giving myself credit for my range hitting the flop better” is probably asking too much of them!
Probably never folding top pair on the flop, and maybe 25% on the turn.
So, in a nutshell, you just refuted every point I made! Point well taken!
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Well, i want to retract part of that… I think perhaps people to tend to fold to 3B on the flop a lot, but not with a lot of dead money from limpers in the pot.
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We should be 3betting our best hands (AA, KK, AKs, etc) for value. Adding bluffing hands such as A5s and A4s to our 3betting range provides an incentive for our opponents to continue with the weaker part of their range. But if our opponents are calling too much, then we don’t need to have 3bet bluffs. I prefer a call with A4s.
Another consideration is how likely the BB would squeeze if you call from the SB. My guess is that this player pool is not likely to squeeze.
Flop 3c Ts 4d
What strong hands do you have in your range? You have middle and bottom set (44, 33). Do you have top set? If you would have 3bet with TT, then you don’t have top set.
Do you have any 2 pair combos? Are you calling from the SB with T4s, T3s, or any 43? There are hands that you might call from BB when closing the action but not always from SB. This boards hits BB range more than your range from the SB.
As you acknowledged, it’s giving your opponents too much credit to assume that they are thinking about how your range hits this board. In the same vein, did you consider your opponents range? How often will they have top pair?
There were 3 callers (EP, HJ, CO). Tx comprise a large part of there calling ranges. Hand like KT, QT,JT, and T9 are hands that player want to play but aren’t strong enough to 3bet.
Trying to bluff low stakes players off of top pair is not a profitable strategy.
It’s great that you’re working on adding aggression to your game. I just don’t think this was the spot to do it. But the willingness to make mistakes is part of learning and growing.
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Sometimes I donk on 6 high and 5 high boards for thin value and protection when I hit a pair, but I prefer a check raise. It gives you more information and slows down the aggros who just bet when checked to. It’s vogue now to donk with the nuts, but seldom is it bluffed at the right frequency. On the turn you have 4 twos, 4 fives, and 8 clubs for a total of 16 cards out of the 47 remaining to continue bluffing with. And barring the board pairing, they are all draws to the nuts.
I would do a 3e check-raise on the flop, 2e turn bet when I gain equity, and shove the river with the nuts.
If I hit my bottom pair, I’m not putting any more money in the pot. If I hit my top pair, I would have to resort to player reads, but I would probably just try to get to showdown as cheap as possible, letting my opponent hang himself with all of his jacks.
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