[eanderson85]

EDIT~
$22 ACR

Villain is a 10/8/4 Out of 54 hands. They have opened 3 times, 3bet once, and cbet once, never from early position.

Are you calling, folding, or 3 betting pre-flop from the Big Blind with

King of clubs, Jack of spades
against their 2.5X UTG8 open?

Flop is As, Qs, 5h. They bet 1/3 pot. What’s your action? Why?

I call the flop because it’s small and his cbet stat is 100% (I didn’t dive into the stats in game to see it was 1/1, my bad).

On the turn we get the 3 of spades.

They bet 57% (Probably 1/2 pot plus one click up).
What is your thought process, and what is your action?

The rule of two and four says I have about 24% chance of hitting, and they give me 27% pot odds. I can more than make up for that with implied odds.
In game, I thought it was even closer. We should call, right?

But I asked poker’s ultimate question. What are they doing this with?
What are they betting that I beat?
In game I didn’t put King Ten into his 10/8 range and every other combo in my head beat me, so I folded my second nut draw.

Equilab says the math is a call against an 8% range. Tightening them up to a 6.5% UTG8 range says it’s a fold.

The world will never know if I should have or not.

Who knew I was such a nit? LOL.

[ep1ct3tu5]

Good Morning EA.

I flat pre and I think this is perfectly fine. Raising against his opening range isn’t in my opinion advised and I think folding is too passive (maybe this is an erroneous approach).

I think a flop float is fine. Fold is out of the question and a C/R wouldn’t make much sense. I actually like a C/R on the turn when the third spade drops. You’ve picked up additional equity and if you flat I don’t believe you actualize any river value as you either miss and have to give up or river goes check check if T or spade drops. I don’t envisage villain going for three streets of value. If it came in you could lead river but what are you getting value from?

I’d be interested in feedback on my line and also how others approach this particular spot. I’m in no way suggesting mine is +EV or the most effective.

[misclickdonkey]

Couple of notes here, KJo is almost always a flat when in the bb facing an ep open. Can be a mix of flat and 3b at 40-50bb effective. 2nd I wouldnt take their stats into consideration. You only have 50 hands on them thats not enough. They could just be getting bad cards. Flop I would deff call cant really raise because most of our Ax that would want to xr here would 3b pre. Turn you can fold, we didnt pick up any more equity. Also if you call what do you want to hit on the river? a Ten sure but if you hit a King and they bet again your in a grim spot.

They could be doing this with any Ax and some of the Qx that has a draw along with it. Also when running spots in equilab you want to be running entire range vs range. Otherwise your results will be skewed. Meaning you wont get to see how your range stacks up vs their range. Lastly what’re you using to determing the UTG range? it looks far too tight to me.

[eanderson85]

He has an 8% RFI. That is an 8% range.

[misclickdonkey]

The other day i was playing a tournament in the first 30 hands i noticed my RFI was around 58%. I was not getting out of line. I just happned to have QQ 2 times AA 1 time. KQ suited a couple of times and a few big aces and some meddling pairs. What im getting at is that is far to small of sample to be considering when making decisions. My take on sample sizes. I dont even look at them until they get to 300ish then you have a general idea of how the person plays. for instance another tournament the other day over 100 hands my vpip was very low. but i was also card dead the entire time, no pairs over 88 had ak and aq 1 time each and the rest was me being bored and opening hands that were marginal. it happens.

for instance. EP vs BB not sure the stack depth doesnt really matter. AQx board im betting 100% of the time my hole cards dont matter. When you call ill likely fire again depending on my holding but the flop itself im firing my whole range on the flop doesnt matter. Your hand has enough equity to call the flop but when fired on agian on the turn being you didnt gain much equity you can fold.

[eanderson85]

Out of my last 50,000 hands, I have played against 10,790 players. When I filter for players with over 200 hands, there are 241 players left. So, I should ignore the stats on 80% of my opponents.

[eanderson85]

98%, forgot a zero.

[misclickdonkey]

Yea, that’s exactly what I’m saying. Well sort of you don’t have to completely ignore but take them less into consideration when playing and just focus on making the most +ev play. 1-200 you can start taking them lightly. Sub 100 I wouldn’t even look at them

[taylormaas]

A couple of things in your analysis:

First, we need to adjust our opponents range for the action on each of the streets. You’ve effectively taken a perceived opening range and assumed our opponent will take this action with every hand in their range. This drastically skews our results to how we should approach the hand. For example, You’re assuming that our opponent is going to bet both the flop and the turn with hands such as 88-JJ, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ. If we adjust for what hands our opponent will check on either street, our equity is going to go down fast.

Second, pot odds can be helpful but it’s a very narrow sited view of a decision to make a call or fold. It really only makes sense in all-in situations when we know exactly what would be needed to win and no more action will take place. In this hand for example, you have no idea if a flush would be good for you or your opponent. So when you hit a flush with your jack, will you call a bet from your opponent? Will you bet yourself? Essentially you are ignoring the implied odds, and the revers implied odds of this hand because there is another round of betting that can happen. Every decision needs to be evaluated at the point you are at and what else can take place in the future when you are considering the odds.

To this exact hand. If our opponent is tight enough I can find a fold on the flop, but will always fold on the turn.

[misclickdonkey]

I really like this analysis Taylor

[eanderson85]

Where did I say that?

You’ve effectively taken a perceived opening range and assumed our opponent will take this action with every hand in their range.

[7high11]

Not withstanding Taylor’s explanation here of when to be using pot odds, I have this question. You asked “What are they betting that I beat?” But I’m guessing you calculated the pot odds on either hitting your flush or straight draws? Hence in that case aren’t you really admitting that you are behind, but the odds favor a call to try and hit your draw? So unless you are also trying to calculate reverse implied odds, isn’t it almost irrelevant that you aren’t currently ahead?

For the record, in game I would have played the hand exactly the same way, but that shouldn’t be much comfort to any of you!