[binkley]

Flop:[Jd 3c Td]

Pot is 956. BB leads for 210 (22% pot). UTG raises 679 to 889 (50% pot raise).

Hero to call 889 into a pot of 2055. Equity required for break even call is 889/(889+[956+210+889]) = 30% if no more money goes into the pot.

Risk is that BB 3bets. But if BB calls then equity required is 25%.

What value hands does UTG have? Possible hands that would limp call are: JT and 33. Discount JJ and TT as they would likely open raise.

Against exactly JT and 33, KK has 28% equity. So if UTG is only raising with a value hands then it’s a slightly losing call.

What possible bluffs does UTG have? Strongest draws are Ad3d (pair & nut FD), AdXd (nut FD), KdQd, Qd9d,9d8d.

If we include just Ad3d into UTG range, then equity goes to 30%.

Are there hands that UTG might over-value? AJ, KJ, QJ are possible over-valued hands.

If we include QJ, then equity goes to 38%.

So if we think UTG is bluffing at some frequency or overvaluing top pair, then we should continue. If our read of the opponent makes us pretty certain that UTG range is 100% value, then a fold is reasonable.

[yamel]

Agree with Binkley that JT and 33 are most likely value hands. If we decide to call, we should assume they are on a flush draw and should treat this as a bluff catcher hoping they check the turn to see a free river, and that they bluff that river for us to catch the bluff with one pair….once stacks go in on turn I think that puts our bluff catching plans in a tough spot.