[monkiesystem]

When I’m looking at QQ, an Ace flops, and V wants to play, I’ve trained my brain to visualize the picture attached. Like Star Trek’s Duras sisters, they’re ugly, weak, and have little help on the way.

In this hand the SPR on the flop is 1. So you commit to this pot if you invest any more chips in it. QQ doesn’t fall into a check-calling or check-jamming range here.

His bluffs are hands with the Kd. It’s villain-dependent. He may or may not have KdTd or Kd9d for his bluffs. It’s hard to say if he was turning some lower pair into a bluff.

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[jamin96]

That’s a great picture for a big trek fan like myself! The other consideration was that I was free-rolling this tournament so I really, really wanted to cash but its hard to find bluffs

[taylormaas]

Well played. Good fold on the turn.

[tvstensby]

I think that going all-in with QdQh is a good alternative here. When the pot is this bloated going all-in ensure that you capture your fair share of the pot. If your opponents ranges are wide you benefit from good fold equity. If their ranges are narrow the blocking effect of Ad, Qd and Jd cause their all-in calling ranges to contain a high proportion of pairs and sets that your second nut flush draw does well against.

I used CREV to calculate your EV vs various opponent ranges. I assumed that opponents calls with the nut flush draw and made hands KK and better when being the first caller. If the LJ calls the CO will only call with nut flushdraws and made hands better than top pair with a kicker higher than the second card. For the runs I did this is a profitable strategy for your opponents. In all runs the preflop calling ranges of both opponents are the same.

CREV summary:

EV is -2.21bb vs AA-JJ,AKs-AJs,AKo (3.62% range)

EV is 3.38bb vs AA-TT,AKs-ATs,AKo-AJo (6.18% range)

EV is 5.88bb vs AA-TT,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo (10.71% range)

EV is 8.65bb vs AA-88,AKs-A7s,KQs-K9s,QJs,JTs,AKo-ATo,KQo-KJo (12.52% range)

EV is 16.67bb vs JJ-22,AQs-A8s,A5s-A3s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,[50]AA-QQ,AKs,AKo[/50] (15.76% range)

EV is 18.97bb vs AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K2o,QJo-QTo,JTo (52.94% range)

We see that in order to have negative EV our opponents need to call preflop with a range that is very tight. A range more similar to a 4-bet range rather than a calling range.

[taylormaas]

I’m really confused by this. Are you just analyzing the equities preflop? On the turn we surely have very different and tighter ranges than what you are describing here.

[tvstensby]

Sorry for not making it clearer. It was meant to answer the question: “Do we have a reasonable spot to get it in on the flop?”

The game tree in CREV starts on the flop with the hero pushing from the SB and the two opponents can then either call or fold. I ignore any possible side pot in the calculations (i.e. everyone have the same stack).

Then I played around with preflop calling ranges and the opponents criteria for calling the all-in.

[tvstensby]

My main objective when doing this experiment was to explore what conditions are required to make pushing all-in a bad play. Since hero has a made hand + the second nut flush draw in a bloated pot (SPR close to one) it was actually quite hard to find opponent ranges that give hero a negative EV when pushing here.

There might be more profitable lines that hero can take with this hand. By going all-in we make our opponents play somewhat “honestly”. However, we do get to realize our equity. And that is important when the SPR gets close to one.

[eanderson85]

Preflop is good. It’s a 5X shove, and if someone calls you’re flipping at best. You Don’t really want to go multiway and you want to raise for value. A pot sized bet is perfect. Draws and pocket pairs do not have the correct implied odds to set mine and we are getting chips in the pot with probably the best hand.

On the flop, our range has the nut advantage as the 3bettor. We have Aces while they should have 4 bet with theirs.

The callers have the range advantage, as they have more suited cards.

With the nut advantage our bet sizing should be large,
and without range advantage we should bet very infrequently.

Basically bet big with the nut flush draw and better.

We have the second nut flush draw with a pot sized bet left, so it probably isn’t a mistake to shove. They need to call 50% of the time to keep us from auto profiting, and whey they do, we still get the second nuts 35% of the time.
I like the check myself. They have lots of combos with the Kd and tons of Ax with a diamond.

When you called off 1/3 of your stack on the flop with and SPR of 1, second pair, and the second nut flush draw what was your plan for the next 2 streets? Hope it checks down? If that happens you win sometimes to a Jack.
If he bets turn, river, or both how much are you going to have left in the end? If we don’t turn the King of diamonds everything else sucks.

A quick test is to ask yourself if they would be doing this with the hand that is just worse than yours. If they won’t do it with that one, then they probably aren’t doing it with the really bad hands.
In this case the hand one worse than yours is a pair of Jacks. It is possible they called a 3bet pre with Jd-Jx, crushed the flop, then bet middle set on a monotone flop when checked to.
Let’s try one hand worse that missed. Would they bet into AJ3 monotone with Ten Ten? I’m looking for showdown if it’s me. The best you can hope for is they have Td-X and are willing to bet it, and they still might check that with the pot already at 40BB. They can wait for you to bluff or shove the river if you don’t. How many suited hands do they call a 3bet with? How many of them want to charge your bigger draws and avoid the board pairing? Most of their bluffs are Kd-X, A-Xd, and Qx-Td.
Even when we hit our draw 1/3 of the time, we are very often dominated.
With the betting lead and If there hud stats warrant it, you could shove the flop and pray for a fold, kinda risky after a long day, or check/fold the flop.
I think you played it well right up to losing 12 BB calling on the flop.