[binkley]

Quick answer. Fold

If my math is correct and I’m following the action correctly, V jammed 70bbs into a 17bb pot. That’s quite the overbet. We would need a strong soul-read type of a read on both UTG and BB to make this call with third pair.

V has all the strong hands, (sets, 2 pair, and straights) in their range. Having the Ace of spade in our hand means that V is not doing this will the nut FD. K-high and Q-high FD all have pairs that beat us.

I think JT is the only possible bluff that we’re ahead of.

[bchip]

Agreed. Without the flush draw, the hand cannot withstand the pressure of the 4X overbet.

[tvstensby]

Fold. As you say you are not closing the action, which is a good reason not to considering to bluff catch.

The UTG might make this bet with a polarized range, but even if you are right it will probably be close to zero ev. And if the BB wakes up with a good hand you are in trouble.

The only reason to call here is if you know the BB will almost always fold and the UTG bluffs to much.

[bchip]

Let’s take that one step further.

Even if you knew that the BB was going to fold 100% of the time, and you knew the villain bluffs too much. When is calling an approximate 4x pot bet warranted early in a tournament?

How good a hand do you need to call this bet.

[black_spruce]

Thanks. That makes me feel better. I folded and the BB called. UTG made a set (888), BB had KQ. River was a T. For a good (or bad) hour afterwards – I kinda sorta obsessed over a missed opportunity to triple up, even if I made the “correct” decision.