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Tricky SNG Spot
This is one of those short ACR tournaments. $20 buy in. $240 up top. $42 for 7th place. There 8 left, 7 get paid. We’re 7 of 8, with one player only having 1.8bb. We have 6bb and are the clear second short stack. MP opens off a stack of 20bb. Folds to us in the CO w/ JJ. We have basically no fold equity. Your move?
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8 Replies
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Why are you assuming you have no fold equity? I could see that MP opens with a modestly strong hand that he/she doesn’t want to go all in on the bubble and SB may just hope that you get called and fold if you jam. You don’t want to get called (obviously) but you are not in terrible shape if you do.
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I mean they should be opening tighter to begin with (theoretically) and if we shove they are getting nearly 4 to 1 on a call (which could also pop the bubble and wouldn’t hurt them that much if they lost). They really can’t fold anything reasonable (which should make up most of their opening range).
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If he is that good and you are happy with folding JJ and potentially blinding out after mincashing, then it is an “easy” fold. However, I think there is SOME fold equity to be had, partly because villain may be thinking of bigger than just cashing given his stack size and the presence of the microstack on the SB. Picking up this pot puts you in contention for some pay jumps I assume.
I ran it through ICMIZER and it is a jam…
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When I run it with these exact specs, it is a lot closer of a spot than what you got. JJ is a shove, but barely. TT and AQo are basically breakeven, so very likely folds, and 99 and AJs are losing plays. All this assumes that EP is opening A2s+, A3o+, K9s+, QTs+, KTo+, QJo+, and 77+. If we tighten their range and drop off some of those bad Ax and hands like KTo (which I think is pretty reasonable), JJ is super, super close and the very bottom of our shoving range. We’re shoving JJ+, AKo, AKs, and hating our life with AQs. TT is a fold.
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For the record, I did shove here and went out (vs AdKd), but I felt like it was close and possibly even a mistake when I did it.
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So I used the ranges from ICMIZER in the analysis. Is this range just your experience or is this drawn from Dara’s book?
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The first range was from HRC (so default ICM/GTO in this spot). The adjusted range is more my suspicion that most of the field isn’t opening a hand like A5o in this spot.
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I’m going with it here. We should be pretty tight in this spot but JJ is premium enough for me risk the min cash. Plus, when we hold, we then put ourselves in a very reasonable spot to go and win the tourney. Folding would be conceding to a min-cash.
However, if we were near the bubble of a large field MTT, I think its a clear and obvious fold because winning the hand does not considerably increase our odds of winning the tourney. The thing that’s the difference here is the small field tourney and the fact that the current chipleader has 22 BBs so we can realize more $EV.
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