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Tricky Trips
Here’s the hand:
PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG+1: 16.89 BB
MP: 5.74 BB
CO: 8.02 BB
BTN: 20.5 BB
SB: 37.95 BB
Hero (BB): 18.91 BB
UTG: 25.96 BB
7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.43 BB) Hero has 8h 5s
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero checks
Flop : (4.93 BB, 4 players) 5c 4h 9c
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks
Turn : (4.93 BB, 4 players) 5d
SB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 17.78 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, SB calls 15.78 BB
River : (40.49 BB, 2 players) 7d
SB shows 4s 5h (Full House, Fives full of Fours)
(Pre 33%, Flop 76%, Turn 88%)
Hero shows 8h 5s (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 67%, Flop 24%, Turn 13%)
SB wins 40.49 BB
On the turn when I shoved I was value targeting all of the SB completes with 9’s in V’s range. He could have A9, K9, J9, T9 (12 combos each) that decided not to lead out on the flop even though this was a limped pot. He could also have 9 combos of 98, and a 50% discount on 97, and 96s. He could even have 66. He could also be semi-bluffing clubs. 33 and 22 don’t seem likely. We can rule out 77+ and broadways because those would bet preflop.
His calling would be a great result for me, but folding out his equity would be a good thing too. The danger was A5, any suited 5 down to 95, 54, and 44. That’s 16 combos – a lot less combos than the value target.
This combinatoric analysis is similar to many different hands where you get trips. Because trips block so many hands that beat them, they’re a heavy favorite over a capped range like SB had here.
Nevertheless, it seems I’ve gotten creamed like this with trips enough times to make them seem like a reverse-implied odds hand.
Am I missing something in my analysis?
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1 Reply
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I wouldn’t say SB is capped given the flop…sure he doesn’t have big broadway type hands, but he has a lot of hands that connect with this low flop. When you are first to act and this multi-way, you could easily go for a XR with a strong hand. So when he bets turn, I think he can have a lot of weak one pair holdings you mentioned, but also strong value. I get there are more weak hands than strong value, but when we jam, don’t we allow him to play perfectly. If I’m V, I’m not calling the jam with a one pair hand, which is what we want to get max value from and is most likely given your combo analysis.
If you had called the turn and see what he does on river, maybe the combination of sizing and some straights getting there lets you save some money on river…but you are always losing something when someone turns a full house…just doesn’t have to be all the chips.
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