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TT Shoved On
9-handed sit and go. 8 players left. Hero is the chip leader.
BTN: 38.8 BB
SB: 7.94 BB
BB: 82.9 BB
UTG: 38.9 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 89.42 BB
MP: 29.64 BB
MP+1: 38.6 BB
CO: 33.8 BBAnte of 0.8 BB.
UTG folds. Hero in UTG+1 is dealt <strong style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”>TcTd and <strong style=”background-color: var(–bb-content-background-color); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”>raises to 2.5 BB. MP calls, MP+1 reshoves 38.5 BB, CO is all-in with 33.7 BB, and<strong style=”background-color: var(–bb-content-background-color); font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; color: var(–bb-body-text-color);”> it folds back to Hero.
I only have 9 hands on MP+1 – we’re only 9 hands into the game – and this is the first time he’s VPIP.
I only have 24 hands on CO, but he’s been loose, for what that’s worth.
Against 1 player, I’m maybe/probably calling. Against 2 players, I folded. I felt one of them – especially CO – likely had a bigger pair than TT.
After the game, using PokerCruncher, I put them both on 66+, two suited Broadway cards, AQo and AKo, and T9s. Given those ranges, I would have had 34.6% equity vs pot odds of 31%.
Was folding too tight? To what extent do we factor in that it’s a “final table” and we have the opportunity to eliminate two players?
Thanks
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4 Replies
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Good fold. Not really even that close once this action plays out this way. We have such a nice chip lead here and these players are in ICM hell (even if they don’t realize it). That 8 bb stack is your friend. Even though we can’t bust, we don’t want to give up this major advantage on a marginal spot like this. In theory, they should both be crushing your range and should be MUCH tighter than your PokerCruncher ranges. It kind of depends on the payout ladders, and I know you said CO was playing much looser, but in theory if this is a fairly standard FT payout structure, I think CO should only be rejamming there with QQ+ (and even that is marginal, it might only be KK+). The MP+1 should also not really be doing this very often. They have two stacks (plus you) that can ruin them both. So they print money by waiting out the SB.
You’ll get to see showdown here, and unless this is like AA v KK, we now know a lot about these players. They are making huge mistakes. We can preserve our big stack and wait for the chips to flow our way.
And you mentioned the EV vs our odds. So first, I think they should have tighter ranges and second, when ICM comes into play, we need to play outside the Chip EV model. It makes us (and our opponents) play tighter. And it makes calling mistakes much bigger than raising ones. This is a clear fold. Good job!
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Thanks, that makes me feel better. Great point about ICM cause tighter ranges.
I’m working on not being outcome-centric when bad variance comes my way. I’m better than I used to be, but this one just ate at me. The villians had 77 and 66, and the flop was TTx.
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I’m realizing I may have misread this one to start. This was a SNG not a final table of a big MTT, right? So we’re nowhere near the money. This would change things dramatically for me. I still might find a fold given this dynamic, but it is much more likely that our opponents are gambling it up early in the SNG. Our TT has some hope in this situation and should have none at an MTT FT. Regardless of whether we folded or not, the first thing I’d do in this moment is make a note on MP+1. Calling off ~40bb to an open and shove with 66 is not a very good recipe for success. So I’d make a note of it and now we know that about that player for the future.
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