[fivebyfive]

When we get this flop after 3betting, I’m almost always continuing. This helps because I often have the best hand and because it will help in ranging our opponent as the hand progresses. I’m especially betting since I don’t have the Jc. If I did, I might sometimes check this through.

But once we get to the turn, I’m still definitely betting. When villain calls, I’d say their strongest holdings are flushes, and they can have a decent number of them. But some of them raise too, which limits the number that can get to the river. But I don’t think they have anything else strong. The flopped straight is going to have bet or raised by now as would flopped or turned sets. So besides the flushes, what else is in range that checks back flop and calls turn? There are a few 10x combos, mainly AT and a few suited 10x broadways. They also have some overpairs to our JJ, especially ones that contain a club. For bluffs, they may have some AcX combos.

When we get a chunky river bet, we can beat the 10x and AcX combos, and we lose to all the flushes and overpairs. I’d say the most likely combos we beat are 10s9s, 10sJs, 10sQs, 10sKs, ATsuited (3 combos), and AcQx (4 combos), AcJx (4 combos). Not sure if all those hands call preflop (some fold and some 4bet), but let’s be generous and give all of them. That’s 15 combos we beat. We lose to AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, AcAx (3 combos), KcKx (3 combos), QcQx (3 combos). Again, some of these hands four bet or fold, but let’s be generous and say they’re all calling pre. That’s 15 combos we lose to. There could be more since our 3bet was small, which could mean some smaller flushes are in range, but I still think those raise on the turn.

We only need to be right ~27% of the time to make this a profitable call. It really then depends on how many of these hands we think tight villain will fold vs. 4bet. I might make an exploitive fold against a really tight player, but I’m mostly going to struggle to fold based on the action in this hand—especially in a cash game.