[steve-fredlund]

Will be interested what the wizards think; I’m still in check-call mode on turn and likely river.

[binkley]

Interesting spot based on the possible ranges of both players. The limper from LJ (given it’s 6-handed) has a hand they want to play. But the limp either means they don’t think it’s stronger enough to raise or it’s really strong and they want to trap. For this reason, I would be surprised if hands like QQ or JJ would be in their limping range.

Now facing a single limper, BB would likely raise with the top of their range, JJ+, AQ+. So the check caps his range. But his range still includes every other hand.

Turn decision:

Board: 4c6sQh5h

BB holding 5d7s has a weak pair with a OESD. This hand has enough equity to check/call. A small bet ~35-40% may be fine to get folds from LJ hands that totally missed the board but still have equity against us.

LJ likely continues with good flush and straight draws no matter the raise size. So big bet is bloating the pot OOP with a weak hand. I don’t like this option.

If BB bets 1000 and gets raised to 3500, then this is fold with 5d7s. There are a lot of better hands in BB range that could continue.

Possible value :87, 73, 32, 44,55,66,Q5,Q6,Q4

Possible draws Ah7h, 9h8h, Ah6h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Kh7h. 7h6h

[taylormaas]

On the flop, we can turn this into a lead when it is a limped pot and heads up. I don’t mind the check either, but betting and taking this down right away is a win for us.

On the turn, after our opponent checks back the flop. I’m almost always leading here and choosing a relatively large sizing. 1000 seems about right. If opponent raises us to 3500, I’m going to make a decision based on how i view this opponent. If its someone I know can put pressure on, I will always call here. If it someone that plays very straight-forward, its an easy fold. Against an unknown opponent, I lean towards calling and hoping to see a good river card.

By taking this line they are representing a hand like 87/65/45/44/66/55. All those have either very few combos, or we block their likelihood (except the 87). And depending on the opponent, a lot don’t go to 3.5x with these hands. It would be a very polarized raise.

If we instead decided to check, calling any bet they make is always the decision.

[binkley]

@TaylorMaas Are there particular aspects (blocker, suits) of this hand, 5d7s, that make you want to lead here? It does have blockers to opponent having a set (55) and straight (78).

Or are you leading with most of the hands that connected with the board flop in some way? Is your decision based on the opponents line (preflop limp, check flop), your hand, or both?

[taylormaas]

To put it simply, most of the reason for taking a lead is to deny our opponents equity.

[binkley]

I think I understand your reasoning, but correct me if I got it wrong.

We think we are ahead most of the time. So betting and folding out hands that have equity (any two overcards to our hand) is a win.

[taylormaas]

Yeah. There are a ton of hands that have some equity but can’t call a bet. It’s the overcards but also the gutshots. Literally every river card that doesn’t improve us is scary in one way or another. I don’t think we could ever bet river, and likely always have to check/fold river.

[arw]

Get the rif raf out…

For me, it personally would drive me nuts if I didn’t Bet the turn, a deuce hits the river, and my opponent has Ducks.

This type of hand had very little equity yet it can outdraw you on a safe looking card.

[jim]

Love this discussion. Now that we are doing these Forum Edition podcasts every week, what’s a good way to suggest posts for the pod? Maybe if people @ me with their suggestions I can move the posts over to the “Podcast” forum for a week or two before recording or something. Any ideas? There are so many good posts to choose from!