[steve-fredlund]

hard to imagine V having AA (because of preflop and flop action) and hard to imagine them having a K (because of post-flop action). This feels like a Jack or nothing. They should never be raising river for value with anything other than AA, a K or a J imo and i have ruled out the AA and any Kings, so I think the only value bet here is a Jack. They should not be raising any other pairs or any flushes, so it’s the one Jack or it’s bluffs (even if they have a K that’s a chop). But what bluffs do they have? You bet pot on turn and river, they have to think you have a K or a J; do they really think they have any fold equity? With only one out you lose to, it almost feels like a mandatory call.

So that’s how I answer the hand.. but generally, I have seem myself evolve in this way when it comes to situations like this (and I would love feedback).

1) I used to rarely bet for value with hands that were marginal (although your hand is above marginal); I was always afraid of the check-raise and i like the idea of under-representing my hand. But I felt I was missing value too often….

2) So I started value betting more and getting a fair amount of value in spots, but then finding more awkward spots when I got raised holding a marginal hand. And i have found that whenever I called in those spots, they almost always had it; so I think my value betting was actually a negative EV play….

3) So now, if I have a marginal hand and I really decide that I can be for value, and then i get raised, I try to exploit my opponents by over-folding as I think generally they are not raising/bluffing enough in those spots. By not paying off those raises over my value bets, I believe I have once again made value betting profitable.

Good stuff @yamel

[yamel]

Makes sense that we need to discount AA and a Kx a lot…if its a J or nothing, there are prob a few combos of weaker Jx that make sense: QJ, 10J, 9J, 8J that we should be counting…still think we have some middle pairs in the range: 1010, 99, 88, 77 that just don’t believe the turn bet and some flushes…In general I agreed with you and called @SteveFredlund

On your broader point, I do think the bet-fold line makes a lot of sense to get value from a lot of our hands on the river…when we get raised, I think it is villain dependent…the more solid aggressive players need to get called down as a bluff catcher b/c they will sniff out a weak bet and see an opp to bluff.

[jim]

Great hand to pull @yamel ! Replying to @SteveFredlund first – I think you are correct that you should be bet/folding thin value because your foes are under-raising with bluffs. Slam dunk there. Plus you get the value paid when they call instead, which as you point out happens quite a bit relative to how often they would bet instead of checking behind for instance. So I think unless you are being bluff-raised enough to make it a factor (and none of us are in our player pools) then even if they are rarely bluffing you in this spot, if the sizing was bigger like a shove, you can theoretically exploitably fold to their unbalanced-strong range. That being said, the pot odds on this sizing are such that you almost have to ask yourself, as Steve does – is it simply always a Jack?

Now, if you know something about this opponent that makes you think they will raise with a marginal holding on this board, then of course it’s a different story. They aren’t bluffing, they’re just (poorly) value-raising in a bad spot without a clear idea of their value-target.

As for the rest of the hand, I think in a vacuum the turn bet is too big to accomplish your goals, as it seems to me that many of the hands you describe are folding to a pot-sized bet multiway on that runout, but you do describe them as sticky, so not sure about my take on that. But a smaller bet would likely get called at a higher frequency by the kinds of hands that you want to be getting money in against here – your King feels like it’s too strong to bluff with but not strong enough to get two streets of value on this runout in this limped pot multiway. Great hand!

[yamel]

Thanks for your thoughts @Jim …my thinking on the turn is that flush draws or small pairs aren’t folding in this game and they prob discount a K given the flop action….so I wanted to get as much value as I could before the river bricks out.

It is a good question if this raise can be a bluff or poorly valued hand often enough….still thinking that one through.

[jim]

For sure if they are going to call the bigger sizing with medium-strength hands then I agree it’s better to size up here. Good for you to be paying attention to how your foes are elastic/inelastic to sizing in these spots!

[yamel]

RESULTS: I call for 5.40 more, V flips over QdJc

[steve-fredlund]

uh oh.