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Can we call this river?
V in this hand is a winning player in our game capable of bluffs and bluffcatching, plays a lot of broadway and suited cards.
.10/.20 4 players about $18 effective
We are on button with Qh10h UTG folds, I raise to .60 sb folds BB raises to 1.20 I call
F: [2.5] 10c Kh 2c BB bets 1.4 I call
T: [5.3] 10c Kh 2c 8h BB checks, I bet 4.10 BB calls
R:[13.5] 10c Kh 2c 8h 10s BB checks, I bet 7.20 BB all in for 13.76, we call 6.56 more
In game, I thought I could defend the bet since V c-bets very frequently and we have a pair plus bdfd. On the turn we pick up equity and maybe can get a weak K or draw to fold with a large bet. And if called, we can still hit our draw.
River improves us to beat any top pair and two pair in V’s range, so we go for a bit of value to get called by AK/KQ type hands. When v raises it seems concerning, but we still beat pair and two pairs and some missed draws, so we shrug and call.
Should our river bet be smaller to bet/fold in this spot? Is this an easy call as played?
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8 Replies
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Preflop: QhTh is a standard open. I always find the min 3bet strange. Calling in position giving the pot odds, you can call extremely wide.
Flop: With middle pair and given BB may be cbetting with entire range, this is a standard call.
Turn: Board is now 10c Kh 2c 8h.
BB checks. This check could be to give-up (X/fold), for pot control (X/call) or a trap (possible X/raise). Hands that would be played for pot control are weaker KX (KJ, K9), QQ, JJ. I don’t think a turn bet gets these hands to fold. Since I don’t think it’s getting better hands to fold, a turn bet isn’t working well as a bluff.
How about betting for protection? What cards are truly bad for our hand? K doesn’t change anything, Q gives us 2 pair, any heart gives us a flush. Only non-heart A, non-heart J, and possibly a 9 is bad.
I prefer a check. This avoids a check-raise where you may be forced to fold out your equity. This allows you to bluff catch BB on the river. A player capable of bluffing may see an opportunity to bluff after you check the turn.
River: As played, you need to call $6.56 to win a pot of $27.90. You need to win 19% of the time to break even. If BB is bluffing just 1 out of 5 times, you are making a profitable call.
BB could have been trapping with hands like KK, KT, 88, AT
Maybe BB is overvaluing JT, T9. There are various missed FD and BDFD that could be turned into bluffs.
I think this is a call.
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It’s a weird spot for them to be bluffing; you need to call 6.5 in a pot of about 40. Can’t believe they have any bluffs here. The question is what value hands are they betting that we beat and lose to?
The pre-flop 3-bet puts these river-value hands in their range: KK, TT, 88 and stuff like AK, AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s , 22 if you think they 3-bet a button open with those hands. I’m guessing they continue their entire range on the flop after 3-betting pre and a flop of KT2 so that doesn’t reduce value hands for me.
On the turn where they check-call I generally take sets out here as the 8h makes the board wetter, so I would reduce the potential they have KK, TT, 88, 22 and start thinking these are the AK, AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s hands.
It’s a curious check shove with any of these hands other than maybe KT if they want to keep your bluffs in play and think you will stab with those hands. At this point I would expect AK to just check call. So I guess it’s AT, KT, QT, JTs, T9s left in my brain for their range of check-raising. All of those involve the case T, so it makes me not totally trust my range definitions here. But if that’s all I have, there are 7 combos we lose to (AT, KT), 3 we chop with (QT), and 2 combos we beat (JdTd, Td9d). That’s 16% to win, 25% to chop. Getting 7:1 pot odds I think we have to call.
And if I’m wrong that they could have some bluffs or be value betting just random kings, then it makes it a very clear call.
Putting myself out here with this one; could be totally wrong.
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@Binkley and @SteveFredlund crushed it with their insights. I also call the river. They might have you out kicked but the price is cheap enough to call.
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@Binkley @SteveFredlund I agree with your perspectives here.
In game I think I got stuck on him having AK given pre flop action, my blockers and the turn check , that I didn’t count all the value hands you listed. Also love the check back turn line to keep more bluffs in since we don’t run into too many scare rivers given our draw.
I called and V turned over A10 offsuit.
Do we like the delayed results or better to cover entire hand in original post?
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I like delayed; it makes us work harder I think. I love doing this myself and don’t mind being wrong; I think it adds to the learning more than being tempted to back into the “right” answer
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Agreed. It’s more fun to have delayed results. It removes the possibility of unconsciously skewing the analysis to fit the known result.
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Love these delayed results! I obviously need to be in these forums more often, there is some extremely rich analysis here.
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