[steve-fredlund]

That sucks. Jon is capable of making a play there, but would also think his two pair combos are good. Hard to put him on AA, KK, or 55. I could see him having JJ possibly if he is playing that snug, but unlikely. So the only thing I’m afraid of at all is QT which would probably have to be QdTd unless he was getting pretty loose on that flop. I think Jon would do this with AJ, KJ, A4, A5, 54 as a value bet (which you beat)..I could also see him doing this with a number of diamond draws that missed (Q9, Q8, Q7, T9, T8, T7, 98, 97, 96, 87, 86, 65. I guess Michael could have QT as well so either of them could have peeled the flop on a gut shot with the bet sizing. At the end of the day, vs two good players capable of making a play with a missed draw or value-betting hands we beat, I think we have to gulp and call.

[veaner85]

Well, I wish I had gulped and called. mbabker called and lost to JonLutsey.

If there was only one opponent in the hand I would have called. Both seemed to call the bets pretty quick and the raise and re-raise on the river really solidified the thought that I was losing to one of them.

Turns out mbabker had A5 and JonLutsey had AJ.

So I would have tripled up on the second hand of the event, instead I lost 20% of my chips and was kicking myself for a few orbits.

[jonlutsey]

I was really curious what you had as you thought for a long time. On the river, I would have called most bets from you if you continued in the same fashion you had during the hand. But when you checked and mbabker led large, it looked like the river helped him and I was maybe ahead of you. I did not put you on a set as I blocked AA, JJ, which only left 44. Guess I should have included that. So my thinking is I was ahead and if the river did help mbabker, I could get a call from him. Definitely having 3 of us in there changed the dynamics. If I was heads up with you, I would have raised the flop or turn and been more suspicious of your hand when you called or re-raised, probably not putting all my chips in the hand.

[fivebyfive]

I agree with Steve here. I’m really only beaten by some Q10 variety here (it’s possible that someone reaches this river with a better set, but it is very unlikely). By the time we reach the turn, I think we can eliminate all but Qd10d and Qs10s. That’s two combos, compared to a large number of two pair combos that we beat. And on the turn, I would expect the spade combo to raise, protecting against diamonds and possibly counterfeiting their straight with a Q or 10 river. So now by the river, I’m only really afraid of one combo when these shoves go in. So I’m calling and GG if someone happens to have Qd10d.

[arw]

Pocket 4’s open 3x, two calls, sb calls, 4 ways.

Pot is 422 and flop is AcJd4d

You bet 180 and two callers. Both have position on you.

The turn is Kc. You bet 300 into 962 and both call again

The river is 5h. You check river and see a bet of 1050 and a re-raise to 2388.

First off, I think you made an error on the flop. With bottom set and multiple players, you should be betting larger than 180 into 422. This flop likely hit your opponents range. There are a ton of possible draws as well. In spots like this, I tend to call more often with my good draws and multiple players against a c-bet because I have implied odds to possibly double up. Your opponents may be in this spot and a bet of 180 is encouraging them to call. Thus, I likely c-bet around 250 – 350. Another good reason to bet larger is b/c bottom set is likely ahead of all hands on this board. You should be value-betting the flop, looking to get all-in on safe turn cards, and trying to thin the field to reduce the number of possible outs that lose you the pot. Getting heads-up will greatly change increase your equity.

My plan would be to go for 3 streets of value or try to get it in on the turn.

— If you have 3000 chips starting.

— PF – hero opens to 90——–pot size will be = 422 (three ways)

— F – hero c-bets 300——–pot size will be = 1022 (two ways) or 1322 (three ways)

After betting the flop, you have invested over 13% of your stack and have 2610 left which is approximately double the pot size. I’m assuming that everyone also started with 3000. I would be looking to bet between 25% and 33% of my opponents stack to possibly incentivize them to raise over the top. I choose a bet size is 900 on the turn with no intention of folding when raised. The board texture is favorable for your hand. Their most likely holding is an ace, two pair, flush draw, or a gut-shot. If my turn bet of 900 is called, my plan is to continue to value-bet by betting all-in.

— T – hero c-bets 900——–pot size will be = 3822 (two ways) or 4722 (three ways)

— R – hero goes ALL IN

As played,

The 23 and QT have straights. If they have a larger set, than you were always beat and never ahead. I estimate the worst-case is losing to ~40 – 50 combos. Otherwise, you’re beating any one-pair, two-pair, and missed draw. The one-pair hands AQ, AT, A9, A8 which is 48 combos total. The two-pair hands AK, AJ, A5, KJ which 32 combos total. Approximately 2/3 of the hand combos are in your favor.

That being said, I’m surprised that you saw both opponents get aggressive on the river. One reason is, all the draws missed. As mentioned by @JonLutsey , he didn’t even consider your hand (small set) because he was blocking so many worse two pairs and likely only worried that all the draws missed. AJ is very strong on this board and I don’t blame him for wanting to get all the chips in.

When you check the river, it isn’t a bad play because you have multiple players and you’re out of position, the issue is that you aren’t getting value by checking. As played, after betting 300 on the turn, you would have about 2600 left on the river and about 1900 in the pot. This looks like a spot where you should either bet 1/2 the pot (800 – 900) or you can over-bet jam. My preference is all-in with bottom set on this board.