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Final 3 of the home game can I fold Two Pair here
So I was playing in the home game last night and we are down to the final 3. I just want to get some opinions. 1st thought I just got coolered but now when I step back and think of that hand I think I might of made a bad call (I don’t know if I am being results oriented with the hindsight)
All stacks are approximates:
Blinds: 600/1200
Villain: 67k (55.8bbs)
Hero: 62k (51.6 bbs)
Other person: 38k (31.6bbs)
Villain: limps on the button (My notes on the villain is a solid player, doesn’t get out of line often, will bet stronger hands and limp his weaker range, earlier in the tournament limped called with 66s).
Hero: Looks down at Ah4h and squeezes to 5.2bbs (46.1bbs left), big blind folds and villain calls (50.2bbs left). Pot of 11.9 bbs.
Flop: As 4c 7h. Hero bets 4bbs (42.1 bbs left) I going to continue with a lot of range here. Villain calls (46.2 bbs left) pot of 19.9bbs
Turn: Is the 8c. Hero bets 11 bbs. Villain jams all in 46.2bbs (So calling 31.1 bbs to win 61 bbs)
*So I have 31.1bbs left. So when I was playing I got tunnel vision and made a pretty quick call (mad at myself because of this, even though I still might of called). So what hands does he limp call, call the flop and then re-raise jam the turn. Because of the limp I think I take out AA-10s his range, same as AK, AQ, AJ and probably A10. So what hands could he have what he is doing this for value with. A7 and A8 where we are behind both hands, I think he jams 87 here what we are ahead of. Also he is jaming 3 combos of 77s, 88s and 1 combo of 44. I also think I can put 65 suited in his limp calling range pre so 4 more combos of that beat us. Think Ax of clubs would jam here but there are only 6 combos of that when you take AA-A10 out of his range. Im really struggling finding bluffs in his range. 76 of clubs is possible but besides that I am struggling to find many bluffs that would be in his limp calling range pre.
So there is 17 combos of value shoves he has that are beating us and an optimistic 6 combos that value shoves that we are beating assuming 87o is in his range. Think I am struggling find many bluffs here, maybe an optimist 3 combos of 76 suited. Then all the Ax of clubs what are 5 combos. So optimistically Im ahead of 14 semi bluff jams here.
Is this just a fold here or am I just being to results oriented that the Villain did have the 1 combo of 44s.
Sorry for rambling but I keep going through this spot in my head.
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3 Replies
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Yeah, this is an ugly one. Not from the hand we have but the action our opponent has taken has dictated strength. The turn raise all-in is almost never a bluff in this spot. So we need to break down the value hands that they have here and determine how many value hands we beat.
The good news is that we only have to beat roughly 1/3 of our opponents value hands here to justify a call. There’s potential they are raising with a hand like AcXc, a weaker two pair (87), but that might be it. There’s also value hands like 44/77/88/56/A7/A8 that have us beat.
This is probably a spot to fold in retrospect, but I’d have a tough time finding the fold in game. -
I agree with your assessment here. If this was an open/defend spot, and I can find more AK, AQ, AJ, A10 in V range, I’m never folding here. But given the limp call range, we have to discount a lot of those combos. Now it is hard to find many hands that we have beat. I think you’re right it is mostly 87 and some weird Ax(club) combos that aren’t two pair. We’re losing to more value: A7, A8, 44, 77, 88, 56 (We might also be chopping with A4).
I don’t mind your call here, it’s close, but it likely is a fold in this spot. More so in a regular tourney with the ICM implications.
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Wow that’s tough Jacob… .I like what the wizards had to say. Great run and a great year you are having (can’t imagine if you had played all year). Have a great holiday… and everyone don’t forget the EASTER EGG Chris just laid.
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