[binkley]

Posting again because the formatting of my first attempt went quite awry.

In this hand the SB is new to the table, so I have no reads. After flopping a set, I face a bet on every street.

Ignition – $0.25 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players

100 BB effective

Hero (CO): 9s9c
Hero raises to 3 BB, <i style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit;”>only SB calls

Flop (7 BB, 2 players):

Qd, 9d, Kh

SB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9.36 BB, SB calls 6.36 BB

Turn (25.72 BB, 2 players):

Ah

SB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

River (47.72 BB, 2 players):

4d

Final board is Qd, 9d, Kh, Ah, 4d

SB bets 34.04 BB, Hero ????

[steve-fredlund]

Feels like it’s value betting all the way and so the question is how much of their range are they value betting that you beat? Are they taking this line with AK, KQ, K9, Q9 or even A9? Obviously JT is in the range that beats us. I think you have under-represented a bit after he check-raised you which makes him keep value betting two pair here. I think it’s a call for me.

[binkley]

To clarify, it wasn’t a check raise. SB lead into me on the flop and I raised from the CO.

[jim]

What a great spot to examine! I hate life here. In a vacuum, what is his turn leading range here? That seems like the key narrowing point. Can they get to the river with a balanced big-bet-leading range when the flush comes in? I don’t play on ignition but .25 on other sites is big enough to have strategic, thinking players from around the world.

[yamel]

Very interesting spot for sure. I love having bottom set here b/c it unblocks a lot of top pair and two pair hands we are ahead of. I think the problem is that once front door flush hits on the river, the pair and two pair hands that didn’t get there (even straights) would want to slow down. I think I fold given the river sizing and its just an unfortunate runout. It would have to be a very loose player that overvalues one pair hands for me to call. Here is what I think of the ranges

Flop: He didn’t raise pre-flop but lead into a flop that favors pfr and called a raise. I think we are facing KJ, KQ type hands that we beat (some with a flush draw) and some 10J…that beats us and is drawing us in

Turn: I think straights that get there will bet larger on turn to get a fold since they are worried about the flush. I think Kx of diamonds are likely here along with 2 pairs.

River: sizing skews range to flush that got there and some bluffs with straights. Can’t find many other hands that would bet on 3 streets from a thinking player.

[binkley]

Flop: Qd, 9d, Kh  BB bets 3bb's into 7bb pot

I have the range advantage as I’ll have more sets and TPTK in my range than the typical SB calling range. Leading is non-standard here. I have trouble ranging opponents that lead. Value raises could be JT, KQ, K9, Q9. Some will lead with marginal hands: K8, Q8, 98. Maybe pair with a draw: KT, QT, T9. Or pure draws: Ad5d, 7d6d.

Discounting KK and QQ, the only hand I’m behind is JT. I raise to 9.36bb. BB calls.

Turn: (Qd, 9d, Kh) Ah

BB again leads for 11bb into 25.7bb pot.

This turn card is good for my range. If I had raised the flop with AA or AK, I now have either a set or top two pair. Yet BB continues to fire. This had me concerned. I’m still behind JT and ahead of any two pair. Even though another flush draw was added, I decided to just call and not raise. I already got value from draws and weaker hands and I don’t want to put more money in if I’m behind.

River: (Qd, 9d, Kh, Ah) 4d

BB bets 34bb into a pot of 47.7bb.

With the third diamond on the river, BB bets large. When the possible flush comes in, JT might use a blocking bet. But betting 71% pot feels too large to be a blocking bet. Two pair may also use a blocking bet line.

If BB made a flush on the river, then after my flop raise, they continued to bet with their draw on the turn. AhXh might take this line.

This was a tough spot.

Results:

Even though I lose to the straight and flush, I do beat some overplayed 2 pairs and pairs plus straight draws. I decided that 99 was too good to fold.

I call and win.

BB has Kd3c.

It seems most likely that BB wasn’t a thinking player and just overplayed flopped top pair. There is a very small chance that holding the Kd, BB decided to use that blocker to try to bluff river. With this runout, I’m only calling with the top of my range.

[arw]

@Binkley

Pre-Flop

• They called your 3 bb open from the small blind.
• This should indicate strength but not super strength. I doubt AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT would allow the big blind to come along cheaply against a late position open. It seems very rare for monsters to flat call from the small blind instead of 3-betting. Most of those hands are likely not being slow-played in this type of cash game. KK is the largest candidate to the villain to have if they flat-call.
• Instead, I think the range is likely heavier in broadway cards and smaller pocket pairs.

Flop – Qd 9d Kh

• The villain leads 3 bb into 7 bb pot. You raise to ~9 bb and villain calls.
• This flop has all big cards, a flush draw, and a straight draw. I think it’s safe to assume that all small pocket pairs (22 – 88) wouldn’t play the hand this way. The broadway cards are very likely to play the hand this way.

• AK — top pair top kicker
• AdKd — top pair + nut flush draw
• AQ — 2nd pair top kicker — with AhQh, AdQd (not possible)
• AJ, AT — gut-shot
• KQ, K9, Q9 — two pair
• KJ, KT — top pair + gut-shot
• QJ, QT — 2nd pair + gut-shot
• JT — nut straight
• JdTd — nut straight + open ended straight flush draw
• JhTh — nut straight + backdoor flush draw

[binkley]

Thanks everybody for your comments.

@ARW Great analysis as usual. I agree that I should have raised on the turn. I like going to 30bb. This leaves about a half pot bet left on the river.

In game, SB continued aggression after the A came on the turn made me decide to just call. I made the mistake of projecting how I would play from the SB instead of considering how different player types may play.

[jim]

Ya I have trouble with projecting as well, and sometimes it leads to me leveling myself up or down which is really frustrating. I played a hand in the home game last night where I 3bet shoved the turn with a hand that probably should have called the XR IP instead, and I did it because it was a spot where I “wanted” to be “able” to shove more semibluffs so I shoved with a value hand to “strengthen my shoving range”. But when I thought about it afterwards that particular hand in that particular spot benefits so much from calling IP and getting the chips in on the river that I was struggling with it in retrospect. I’ll put a new post up today with that hand but I often feel this tension between playing THIS hand against THIS foe vs how I should play in the long term. I know that’s a common tension that many of us deal with – in these home games in particular it’s an interesting situation because we are actually getting a lot of hands on each other so there is more of an incentive to show down balanced ranges. Another great discussion folks!

[binkley]

Yes, there is always the challenge of knowing if we really need to balance our range. In a live tournament vs opponents we may never see again, balancing is really unnecessary. But if we play the same observant good opponents, then balancing gains importance.

I recently heard something that I thought was good. Against top professionals, you should play your range versus their range. But against your average non-professional, you can play your specific hand versus their range.

[jim]

oooooooh I like that. Well put. Get the benefit of ranging them and making good decisions based on good info, but just care less about how they can counter-exploit you when you tailor your play to your exact hand. I think that sound like the right amount of “clever” for what I’m working on these days. Thanks @Binkley !