[trayjax21]

What type of player is the villain you’re up against?

[Unknown Member]

Solid regular player

[trayjax21]

If he’s a solid regular, I’d say you made a good fold. I ran it through Flopzilla, and even giving him some bluff shoves on the river with combo draws that missed, at best I think you were a 3-1 dog.

[jim]

what do you make of the sizing discrepancy between the flop and the turn? What are they setting up the river for?

[binkley]

The A high flop favors the EP raiser. So EP can bet small with their entire range. The large turn bet is polarizing. Range will be mostly premium made hands and bluffs/draws.

[steve-fredlund]

This ultimately comes down to what we think this player is opening UTG with only 22 big blinds. They should be quite tight here. The 1BB bet on the flop is interesting and the turn looks like he is setting up a river shove. So on the turn, you need to decide if you are going to call off on most rivers, otherwise it’s a turn fold. There are a ton of two pairs, sets, straights and even AK that beat us. I’m wondering what missed draws or hands he would have that are not value heavy, assuming he’s checking back his one pair hands here.

[binkley]

One way to approach this spot is to ask if your opponent would make this river bet with the best hand that you beat. So holding AJ on this board, do we think that someone holding A8 make this river shove? Since I don’t think that A8 would, this makes me lean toward a fold.

Going to the river, the pot is 15.35BB. Opponent jams for 14.7BB. Equity needed call is 14.7/(14.7+15.35)=48.9%

Opponent value hands that beat us are:

Sets: AA,TT, 99,QQ

Two pair: AT, A9, AQ, T9, QT, Q9, A4

Discount A4 based on large turn bet.

Straights: KJ, J8s

Top pair, top kicker: AK

Value Combos:

Sets: 1+3+3+3 = 10

Two pair: 6+6+6=18

Straights: 16+4=20

TPTK: 8

Total: 56

Bluffs with no showdown:

FD: Ks8s, Ks7s,Ks6s,8s7s

OESD: 8h7h,8c7c,8d7d

The opponent would need to be bluffing with hands that have some showdown value. Assume that top pairs get checked and middle/bottom pairs get bluffed.

Middle and bottom pair with OESD: QJs, JTs, JJ, J9s

Middle and bottom pair with FD: KsTs, Ts8s

Middle and bottom pairs with gutshots: KK, KcTc,KdTd, 98s, 88

Bluffs Combos:

FD: 1+1+1+1=4

OESD: 3

Middle and bottom pair with OESD: 3+3+6+3=15

Middle and bottom pair with FD: 1+1=2

Middle and bottom pairs with gutshots: 6+2+3+6 = 17

Total Bluffs: 41

41/(41+56)=42.3% < 48/9% needed for a break even call.

It’s a fold.

Since most solid players aren’t turning pairs into bluffs, there will be way more value than bluffs. The equity of calling will be way less than 42%.

[Unknown Member]

Excellent analysis. Thanks a bunch!

[binkley]

I forgot to mention the range that I assumed for UTG+1.

I assumed opening the range of: 55+, A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T9s-87s, T8s,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

This is ~21% of hands.