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  • Massive overbet shoves

    Posted by fivebyfive on January 15, 2021 at 1:03 pm

    I’m curious about the community take on massive overbet shoves. Especially in big field, rebuy MTTs. I’m starting to see this happen more and more and taking high variance call down lines with marginal value against obvious squeeze spots. Part of my reasoning is that I don’t think the field makes these kinds of plays with their extreme value, so the play pushes them more toward draws and weak value that is trying to buy the pot. Here’s an example hand.

    We’re 150/300 (39 ante) level and in the SB with a decent stack.
    Table ‘6’ 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: Sakst82 (2442.00)
    Seat 2: EagleAces12345 (8549.00)
    Seat 3: Mit Rolyat (7692.00)
    Seat 4: Yangarang (25596.00)
    Seat 5: dyemaker (13650.00)
    Seat 6: Villageidiot1 (4293.00)
    Seat 7: laylamoofin29 (7637.00)
    Seat 8: FiveByFive (23294.00)
    Seat 9: OSUBuckMan (20536.00)

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Main pot 351.00
    Dealt to FiveByFive [9s 9h]
    Sakst82 folds
    SEAT 2: EagleAces12345 raises 900.00 to 900.00
    Mit Rolyat folds
    SEAT 4: Yangarang calls 900.00
    dyemaker folds
    Villageidiot1 folds
    laylamoofin29 folds
    SB HERO: FiveByFive calls 750.00
    BB V: OSUBuckMan calls 600.00

    *** FLOP *** [Td Ts 8d]
    Main pot 3951.00
    FiveByFive checks
    OSUBuckMan checks
    EagleAces12345 bets 1976.00
    Yangarang folds
    FiveByFive calls 1976.00
    OSUBuckMan raises 19597.00 to 19597.00 and is all-in
    EagleAces12345 folds
    FiveByFive calls 17621.00
    *** TURN *** [Td Ts 8d] [4c]
    Main pot 45121.00
    *** RIVER *** [Td Ts 8d 4c] [Qh]
    Main pot 45121.00
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Main pot 45121.00
    FiveByFive shows [9s 9h] (two pair, Tens and Nines [Ts Td 9s 9h Qh])
    OSUBuckMan shows [9d 7d] (a pair of Tens [Ts Td Qh 9d 8d])
    FiveByFive collected 45121.00 from main pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 45121.00
    Board [Td Ts 8d 4c Qh]
    Seat 1: Sakst82 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 2: EagleAces12345 folded on the Flop
    Seat 3: Mit Rolyat folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 4: Yangarang folded on the Flop
    Seat 5: dyemaker folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 6: Villageidiot1 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 7: laylamoofin29 (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
    Seat 8: FiveByFive (small blind) showed [9s 9h] and won 45121.00 with two pair, Tens and Nines [Ts Td 9s 9h Qh]
    Seat 9: OSUBuckMan (big blind) showed [9d 7d] and lost with a pair of Tens [Ts Td Qh 9d 8d]

    Thoughts? Do you see anyone do this with really strong value? I personally rarely see V show up with 88 or Tx in this spot. I’m much more likely to fold against a raise here than a shove. If we can eliminate the strongest value, is this okay or still too high variance?

    philfuehrer replied 3 years, 3 months ago 4 Members · 5 Replies
  • 5 Replies
  • steve-fredlund

    January 16, 2021 at 11:52 am

    I’m following this as well; I hardly ever use huge over-bet shoves whether for value or as a bluff; to me those are usually pretty obviously draws. But because I don’t have it in my game, I have a hard time reacting to them as well. I’m interested in the responses to this.. thx Chris

  • tvstensby

    January 16, 2021 at 6:00 pm

    I agree that your opponent rarely has a big value hand here. With a big hand in a three way pot as the caller it would make sense for him to wait and see if someone else is willing to put more money in the pot before revealing the strength of his hand.

    I do like the squeeze play that OSUBuckMan makes with 9d7d in this hand. I also like your call. In my opinion this hand is a good example of a situation where it is correct for both the aggressor and the caller to get all the chips in on the flop. A sufficient amount of chips have gone in already that hands as strong as 9d7d and 9s9h are committed to this pot.

    From OSUBuckMan points of view he is making a 2x shove vs hero, but less than a pot sized shove vs EagleAces12345.

    In order to analyze the hands I put both OSUBuckMan and your hands into an equity calculator. The plots attached show the equity of all hands vs the hands you and your opponent actually had. I made separate plots for combos with/without a diamond.

    The pot is 7885 when OSUBuckMan chooses to go all-in. EagleAces12345 has 5634 left and OSUBuckMan 19597. Hero covers both.

    Outcome 1: EagleAces12345 calls, FiveByFive folds

    OSUBuckMan invests 7610 into a pot that becomes 21129. Required equity for OSUBuckMan is 36%, i.e. EagleAces12345 needs to have more than 64% equity for this to be loosing push for OSUBuckMan. As we can see from the plots in the top row there are very few hands that EagleAces12345 can have that has a larger equity than that. A hand as strong as JdTx (trips + backdoor flush draw) is break even from OSUBuckMan point of view.

    Outcome 2 EagleAces12345 folds, FiveByFive calls:

    OSUBuckMan invests 19597 into a pot that becomes 45121. Required equity is 43%, i.e FiveByFive needs to have more than 57% equity for this to be loosing push for OSUBuckMan. As we see from the plots in the top row there are still quite few hands that meet that criteria.

    The bottom two plots show the equity of calling with 9s9h vs various hand your opponents can have. Hero needs to call 17621 in a pot that becomes 45121, requiring 39% equity (i.e. only loosing when opponent have more than 61% equity). As we see from the bottom plots there are mostly made hands that have that much equity. A lot of the drawing hands that the opponent could have has lower equity than that, making 9s9h a good call.

  • philfuehrer

    January 17, 2021 at 10:25 am

    IMHO – a decade+ ago the “needless allin shove” (as I call it) was almost always a pure bluff, weaker draw or something like bottom pair with a weak draw. It typically wasn’t a great play and could almost always be called with a decent hand/decent draw and you’d be ahead.

    Several years ago now the game shifted to more players using the move with much more premium hands or near nut draws – looking for that “decent” hand that used to be ahead to call (thinking it was a bluff) as they were now behind and allowing the allin chip stack to get the massive chip up. I think the move is even more prevalent in rebuys where overly aggressive types will use the situation for a quick double up (if they’re ahead or their draw hits) and rebuy if they go bust.

    I think it’s a fairly weak move overall (both 10 years ago and today) and, to me, overall comes from poorer players that can be exploited with traps in many other situations.

  • eanderson85

    February 15, 2021 at 12:23 pm

    Pot is 3,951 (~4000)
    The bet is 1,976 (~2,000).
    OSU has 19,597 in his stack (~20,000)

    If OSU wants to 3bet even as small as 2.5X to 5,000, that will make the pot with one caller 14,000 and he will have 15,000 behind.

    If he wants to chase his draw for another card, he has a very awkward bet size.
    Half pot will leave him 8,000 to bet into 28,000 all-in on the river, leaving his opponent pot odds to call with a 30% equity hand. That’s great the 35% of the time he hits his draw, not so good the other times he has 9 high.
    If he is going to raise here he has to shove, maximize his fold equity, and realize his hand equity.

    If he min raises and gets shoved on, should he call 16,000 to win ~45,000???

    If he calls, will he be all in by the river anyway with no chance of getting his opponent to fold? Best case scenario calling: call 2,000 flop leaving 18,000 behind, call 4,000-6,000 on turn leaving 12,000. Fold River with half of your stack 2/3rds of the time.

    As a general rule, if you want to raise and have less than 10 times the bet in your stack, you should go all in. Chances are that you are getting it all in by the river anyway. Why throw away your fold equity?
    It is still possible to win the pot right now.
    When everyone folds you add 30% to your stack. That is a great outcome.

    The bet sizes just don’t work out on future streets unless you plan on folding in the future. If you’re going to do that, fold your open ender now and stop the bleeding.

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