[steve-fredlund]

I’m following this as well; I hardly ever use huge over-bet shoves whether for value or as a bluff; to me those are usually pretty obviously draws. But because I don’t have it in my game, I have a hard time reacting to them as well. I’m interested in the responses to this.. thx Chris

[tvstensby]

I agree that your opponent rarely has a big value hand here. With a big hand in a three way pot as the caller it would make sense for him to wait and see if someone else is willing to put more money in the pot before revealing the strength of his hand.

I do like the squeeze play that OSUBuckMan makes with 9d7d in this hand. I also like your call. In my opinion this hand is a good example of a situation where it is correct for both the aggressor and the caller to get all the chips in on the flop. A sufficient amount of chips have gone in already that hands as strong as 9d7d and 9s9h are committed to this pot.

From OSUBuckMan points of view he is making a 2x shove vs hero, but less than a pot sized shove vs EagleAces12345.

In order to analyze the hands I put both OSUBuckMan and your hands into an equity calculator. The plots attached show the equity of all hands vs the hands you and your opponent actually had. I made separate plots for combos with/without a diamond.

The pot is 7885 when OSUBuckMan chooses to go all-in. EagleAces12345 has 5634 left and OSUBuckMan 19597. Hero covers both.

Outcome 1: EagleAces12345 calls, FiveByFive folds

OSUBuckMan invests 7610 into a pot that becomes 21129. Required equity for OSUBuckMan is 36%, i.e. EagleAces12345 needs to have more than 64% equity for this to be loosing push for OSUBuckMan. As we can see from the plots in the top row there are very few hands that EagleAces12345 can have that has a larger equity than that. A hand as strong as JdTx (trips + backdoor flush draw) is break even from OSUBuckMan point of view.

Outcome 2 EagleAces12345 folds, FiveByFive calls:

OSUBuckMan invests 19597 into a pot that becomes 45121. Required equity is 43%, i.e FiveByFive needs to have more than 57% equity for this to be loosing push for OSUBuckMan. As we see from the plots in the top row there are still quite few hands that meet that criteria.

The bottom two plots show the equity of calling with 9s9h vs various hand your opponents can have. Hero needs to call 17621 in a pot that becomes 45121, requiring 39% equity (i.e. only loosing when opponent have more than 61% equity). As we see from the bottom plots there are mostly made hands that have that much equity. A lot of the drawing hands that the opponent could have has lower equity than that, making 9s9h a good call.

[tvstensby]

Not sure where that image went, but here it is as an attachment.

[tvstensby]

massive_overbet.png 923 KB Image File - Click to view

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[philfuehrer]

IMHO – a decade+ ago the “needless allin shove” (as I call it) was almost always a pure bluff, weaker draw or something like bottom pair with a weak draw. It typically wasn’t a great play and could almost always be called with a decent hand/decent draw and you’d be ahead.

Several years ago now the game shifted to more players using the move with much more premium hands or near nut draws – looking for that “decent” hand that used to be ahead to call (thinking it was a bluff) as they were now behind and allowing the allin chip stack to get the massive chip up. I think the move is even more prevalent in rebuys where overly aggressive types will use the situation for a quick double up (if they’re ahead or their draw hits) and rebuy if they go bust.

I think it’s a fairly weak move overall (both 10 years ago and today) and, to me, overall comes from poorer players that can be exploited with traps in many other situations.

[eanderson85]

Pot is 3,951 (~4000)
The bet is 1,976 (~2,000).
OSU has 19,597 in his stack (~20,000)

If OSU wants to 3bet even as small as 2.5X to 5,000, that will make the pot with one caller 14,000 and he will have 15,000 behind.

If he wants to chase his draw for another card, he has a very awkward bet size.
Half pot will leave him 8,000 to bet into 28,000 all-in on the river, leaving his opponent pot odds to call with a 30% equity hand. That’s great the 35% of the time he hits his draw, not so good the other times he has 9 high.
If he is going to raise here he has to shove, maximize his fold equity, and realize his hand equity.

If he min raises and gets shoved on, should he call 16,000 to win ~45,000???

If he calls, will he be all in by the river anyway with no chance of getting his opponent to fold? Best case scenario calling: call 2,000 flop leaving 18,000 behind, call 4,000-6,000 on turn leaving 12,000. Fold River with half of your stack 2/3rds of the time.

As a general rule, if you want to raise and have less than 10 times the bet in your stack, you should go all in. Chances are that you are getting it all in by the river anyway. Why throw away your fold equity?
It is still possible to win the pot right now.
When everyone folds you add 30% to your stack. That is a great outcome.

The bet sizes just don’t work out on future streets unless you plan on folding in the future. If you’re going to do that, fold your open ender now and stop the bleeding.