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Max value bet sizing
3 ways .10/.20 NL $31 effective
Both v’s are winning players that do not bluff much and can fold in big spots. Button in particular seems to overfold to big bets when I have it, but can also call down to bluff catch when draws miss.
We are in BB with 8s7d BTN opens to .7, SB calls, I make a wide call completing the action
Flop: [2.1] 6c 3h 9c SB checks, I check, BTN bets $1.0, sb calls, I call
Turn: [5.1] 6c 3h 9c 4s sb checks, I check, BTN checks
River:[5.1] 6c 3h 9c 4s 5s SB checks, Hero ??
My thoughts:
Pre-flop the raise is not too large, there was a call and I’m closing action. This V tends to open bigger with big hands, so I think he can be pretty wide with all types of suited hands or a single high broadway with this sizing. I think he opens bigger with pairs.
Flop: I think btn c-bet takes it down most of the time. SB calling makes me think he has some draw or small piece of flop to continue, but not raise, with an open ended draw seems like an easy call and evaluate turn action
Turn: Some small straight draws could get there or one pair hands could pick up a draw. I check to call assuming the button will continue.
River: We got there, but pot is not as big as we would have liked. We don’t want to risk it getting checked around again, but against this thinking button, I think he folds to a large bet a lot. I consider going pot sized or 1.5x pot to make it look like a missed flush draw trying to bluff or to target a smaller straight that got there, but would not bet too big. I consider going smaller (~ $3) to look like a block bet that can easily be raised if one of the opponents has a straight or a set but won’t scare away over-pairs from calling.
How would you get max value here? When do you like a large sizing? When do you like a small sizing? When do you check to XR?
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8 Replies
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I’m actually a big fan of a small raise here for a few reasons. I want to get called by at least one of them nearly 100% of the time. PLUS, it could look like a blocker bet or stab and is more likely to get re-raised by a wider part of one of your villains ranges. The board is so good for your range that I think a big bet (which is polarized generally) is more skewed toward value for you and I don’ think you get called by much, especially when it checks through on turn.
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hmmmmm tricky spot OOP with the nuts when the aggressor failed to cbet the turn. I love how poker can have multiple points of equilibrium – in spots like this, where I am asking myself “how can I EVER get called here?” I always try to put myself in the other position, and say “if I was bluffing here, what would my action and sizing be?” instead, and then find a way of making my opponent indifferent to it, or to exploit their known tendencies.
Against more aggressive opponents I’d be more inclined to XR with value and bluffs but most aggressive opponents might have chosen the turn for their second street of bluffing instead of this scary (for their range) river. So leading seems best. As you say, this runout smashes our range in the BB so we can reliably have 2pr+ here a lot. But how much of that value range benefits from a larger sizing and how much from a smaller sizing? And how effective would bluffs even be at a smaller sizing? And do we want to have two sizings here and to have to balance them both, or is one ok? What hands are calling ANY bet on this runout?
Feels like the calling ranges will be pretty inelastic to conventional sizing – most should know they are bluff-catchers. So what can we target with bigger bets with a 4-s8 on the board? I think we can discount sets by the turn action, maybe some 2pr combos call but again it seems like the hand we are really value-targeting with a bigger bet is a naked 7, or maybe a 2, although the 2 is functionally a bluff-catcher, like sets and 2pr on this runout – so lets make this look like a bluff. This would incline me to make a big overbet and get folds most of the time but occasionally get called by worse and sometimes even raised by a 7. But we should also be doing this with bluffs to avoid being exploitable by only ever overbetting value here. What bluffs would you choose to overbet here, if any?
That being said (lol) if the BTN has a 7 we are getting it in anyway so maybe Steve is right about using a small sizing to target the other sub-premium holdings like 2pr – the 7s will raise it anyway I expect so we don’t really have to strategize about how to get it in vs the second nuts. If you were in the BTN or SB what river sizing would you call with 2pr? And what size would be big enough as a bluff to make you fold a set on this runout?
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I don’t think you can go too wrong with any bet sizing you choose on this given board texture. With 4 to a straight, we can likely assume that anyone would be raising if they have a 7 here. It’s also unlikely that either opponent has a 2 given how it was played. If there were more combos of the ‘bottom end of the straight’, I’d advocate for a large bet to target those hands to pay you off. However, with this exact board texture, I feel like a just under half pot size would be best, hoping that over-pairs/sets/two pairs call your bet, and any 7 will raise. Especially since you said the button tends to overfold to large sizings.
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To me, the answer is pretty clear.
I would bet big!!
– if they fold, who cares, they likely would have folded to a smaller bet also. Bluff catchers are rare with 4 to a straight on the board. They need showdown value to call. Make them pay if they think they have the best hand.
– if I’m bluffing, I don’t want to offer a good price for them to get curious and call. My plan is to bluff big and value bet slightly bigger. DNegs made this comment on the RecPoker podcast.
– when value betting the river, your goal should not be to catch BOTH fish. Thats unrealistic. Plan on getting only one caller. If both call and you have the nuts, sweet….but don’t plan on it happening. Ideally, I want to get called or raised by a worse straight, a set, or an inferior two pair. If these hands will call a 50% bet, they will likely call 75% bet just as often. Especially if these hands think you’re bluffing or they think they have you beat.
If it’s a tournament, my bet size will depend on stack size. In a cash game, I’m likely betting 75% of the pot or larger.
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so there ya go @yamel – somewhere between a big and a small bet 🙂
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Appreciate everyone chiming in on my dilemma of how to play the nuts on the river!
Results: After a lot of internal debate, I bet $3 and they both call, both mucked….so I got $6 of value on the river and immediately wondered if I could have gotten more.
I think @TaylorMaas was right on in my thinking that I could bet enough to get non-straight hands to call and that a naked 7 would raise……
But I definitely wonder if a bigger overbet gets a single call more often after the great analysis from @ARW and @SteveFredlund …guess I have to wait for next month’s seminar on value from @FiveByFive to know for sure 😉
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Getting 2 players to call 60% pot bet with a four straight on the board is a great outcome. Did they snap call or tank call? Half pot bets are so common that often players will call bets that are close to this sizing without thinking. Then once you get the first call, the next last player is getting such a good price and closing the action, they can talk themselves into calling.
I may be biased by the results, but I think you chose the perfect bet size. A smaller bet would be missing out on value. A bigger bet would force your opponents to put more thought into the call and then they would only call with a 7 in their hand.
A small bet would have more merit in a tournament. With shallower stacks and larger emphasis on chip accumulation, increasing the likelihood of a call is weighted more. In cash, it’s all about using the play that has the highest EV.
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@Binkley You are absolutely right…first villain tank called…used entire time bank and i was yelling at my phone for him to raise….as soon as he called, V2 instant called….neither told me what they had, but I was quite surprised 2nd V just called…I guess your point on pot odds makes sense. Naturally I would have preferred that one of them raised me.
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