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Missing Value and Making Mistakes
50/100
Pre-flop
I have KdTs with about 5000 chips
I min-raise to 200, the button calls, the bb calls. (3-ways)
Flop
KcTc2s
On the flop, all 3 players check.
Turn
KcTc2s9c
BB checks, I check, and the villain bets 600 into 1150.
BB folds
The effective stack is ~3700
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Action is to you
1) Fold
2) Call 600
3) Raise to 2000 —- about 1/2 of your opponents stack
4) Raise All In
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As played, I have no idea why I didn’t bet the flop or the turn with top two pair. I completely admit, that I played this one odd. I was likely distracted.
Special Note:
In the past, I’ve compounded my mistake in this spot. During the hand, I notice that I’m playing a weird line where I likely missed value. Then, I decide to try and make up for that missed value, by betting or raising when I shouldn’t.
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8 Replies
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What is your read on the villian?
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what position are you in?
I would likely lead flop, but the way it’s played, I’m trying to get stacks in on the turn, so I am raising to about 2000 (option C) – I might size down a little to give them the impression of remaining fold equity (say something like 1,600).
I like your insight about “making up for it” — it’s not necessarily a mistake to check to be tricky with top two, or something like AA pre-flop… but if it doesn’t work out, then I agree it’s a mistake to try to “make up” what was missed on other streets.
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@SteveFredlund
Hero is in the cutoff.
On the turn, I’m not sure this is the street that I want to get stacks in. I want to bet but if I’m raised, then should I really be calling off? The 9c completes both a straight and flush AND it provides additional outs for a ton of extra hands. Bottom line, this card gives my opponent more equity to win and doesn’t provide me with any help. That being said, it doesn’t mean my opponent hit the flush or straight. Villain saw me check twice and he/she might be trying to take it down.
Possibilities
a) taking a stab with a weak hand (no equity) after seeing no one bet on previous streets.
b) taking a stab with a drawing hand (some equity) as a semi-bluff, expecting to take it down, but will fire favorable rivers, isn’t thinking about good river cards to bluff. In other words, a river bet by them is for value.
c) taking a stab with a drawing hand (some equity) but is planning ahead and willing to bluff on some rivers.
d) he/she has you, you need to hit 4 outs for a full-house and the win.
Action
1) Fold
- I’m only folding to Vu.
2) Call 600
- This is my action 90% of the time…as played.
- Pros:
- I can control the size of the pot.
- If my opponent is bluffing, I want them to continue bluffing.
- If I raise, I don’t think many worse hands will call and a lot of bad river cards can hit (A, Q, J, 4th club) if my opponent was semi-bluffing.
- Cons:
- Calling the turn implies that I will likely check the river. I won’t lead out very often. The most likely cards for me to lead out on are any K or T.
3) Raise
- I’m rarely raising the turn on this board in a tournament. It’s more likely that I call turn, check to Z bettor, and decide whether to re-raise on the safe rivers.
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I agree with @SteveFredlund that this feels like a turn bet…I get the flop check since you are crushing this board and can let V catch up a bit, but there are flush and straight draws that can call you on flop. Out of position, I would want to make sure I get stacks in, so I’d want to bet turn and size so that I can get stacks in on river. So if 2000 leaves 1700 behind for the river bet, seems like you could get away with raising a little smaller on turn, maybe 1/3 of opponents stack. The argument for a bigger turn raise would be to get value from draws that wouldn’t call the river shove.
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I would turn my two pair into a bluff catcher here. Without a read on the villain I would assume that he stabs often enough that calling down is profitable. I am check folding river only when the river card connects with the board AND the villain bets big.
I also agree that betting the flop would have been best.
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I can understand a check on the flop, but as seen by the turn, it is a super coordinated board and I prefer a bet. We can potentially get calls from a good ten, KJ, KQ, QJ, clubs and more.
As played I like calling as the range of hands that call if we check-jam is vary narrow and the only one I see us being ahead of is an A clubs call off and K9.
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Great discussion! I love your point about “making up for it” @ARW I have the same problem sometimes and this is a great example. As you say, as the PFR you often will cbet this flop, and the turn is a bad card for the calling range of your foes. Since it went X/X/X through the flop, the ranges are unrefined but the nut hands have changed significantly on the turn. So when facing this bet on the turn as played, I often find that the hands I was worried about on the flop have ALREADY caught up to me most of the time, and I think raising just allows them to get away from their few bluff candidates in that spot. Obv you can’t fold imo, so I’d likely call and hope to either get to a cheap showdown on a brick, fold to any big bets on dynamic rivers, and try to get money in when i improve. It’s a little face-up but it’s now a two-street game anyway and there’s only so much to gain by getting frisky vs their continuing range.
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