[monkiesystem]

First, I’m jealous because I wanna be in Vegas too… ????

If we jam pre: Given V’s range we are a strong favorite if he calls. If he folds, picking up 5.5bb is a fine result for AKo.

If we donk-jam: There’s less than a 20% probability that V already has the flush and even in that case we have 7 outs. He’s been a loose caller, but is he a wide caller of 27bb donk shove? Even so, 7.5bb is a nice pickup if he folds.

If we check-call: Our SPR is 3-4. We are almost but not quite committed. We can still play poker on this street if V C-bets a normal amount. But what if V jams? Do you think his range gives us a snap call or a sigh-call?

If we check-shove: If V folds we pull in a nice pot and fold out his equity. Do you think V will call this with any AQ? AQd only? AT?

That’s more questions than answers, but I hope to cause more discussion of this interesting spot.

[jacob-kieke]

Interesting hand. How close are you to the money?

1) Here are some of my personal thoughts (What might be incorrect), I am 3-bet jamming. With a big 3x open from a wider player, you are getting such good value in my opinion to pick up 5.5bbs. You block the monsters in AA and KK, you also say the player calls wider so you might get calls from AQ, AJ, A10s and even possibly KQs. Also I would feel comfortable flipping 32bbs, when you can double from average stack, puts you in great position to win the tournament.

2) Personally I think a 3 bet to 9 is pretty bad here. I don’t think you pick up great fold equity with you saying the guy is a loose caller and then you are in such a weird spot here post flop if you don’t hit the flop. There are so many boards where it misses our hand here and you will have to C bet but you are only 21bbs deep. Also it sucks to play this hand out of position the whole time. (Obviously with this exact flop the 3-bet would of been awesome but can’t be results oriented). Personally I believe 3-beting is your worst option outside of folding.

3) Post flop I like it more as a check/Jam. Once you donk bet jam I think you lose out on so much value. What are you getting called by when you donk jam. You are getting called by any made flushes. AJ, JJ, the 2 remaining combos A7 suited I guess and 77. I think there is only 2 combos of hands that I think you are ahead of that you get called by in AQ with the Q of diamonds and I think A10 with the 10 of Diamonds is also possible. Just think we lose a lot of value when you donk jam. Now if you check/jam you extract more value out of the villains C-bet also you price in more Ax hands or Qd/x or 10s, 99s or 88s if they have a diamond in there hand, you are obviously also getting called by hands that you are already behind what you would be also called by by your donk jam but you would still have 7-9 outs to the nuts.

4) I don’t think Check/call is terrible on the flop but I just think there is a very good chance that turn goes check/check allowing the villain to possibly catch up and losing value.

I am not saying my thinking is right but I would rank

Jam pre the best option, Then check jam, Then Check/call, Then donk/jam, 3-bet pre and obviously last place is folding pre.

[taylormaas]

Preflop, my preferred action is to jam all-in. I have a 30betting range here that is probably wider than yours, so taking this action with this hand is protecting some of the weaker holdings that I might have in this spot. I think the other thing that you mention, that the opener is loose and has the tendency to call light, helps confirm that jamming is correct in this spot. As for potential other options preflop, I don’t like 3-betting to a smaller sizing due to the stack-to-pot ratio on the flop. It just leaves us in a weird spot with stack sizes and out of position. I’d prefer a call to a small 30bet.
On the flop, I do not like the lead jam. Although we can get worse hands to call us, those same hands will CBet, along with other worse hands that will CBet. To me, this is a textbook check/jam spot and I’ll take that every day of the week.

[rabman50]

I definitely should have jammed pre. By calling the open I capped my range in his mind. He did not believe I was as strong as I was. This could be good or bad. As played I jammed and he called with AT black. He was rescued by the other black T on the turn. There was no help on the river and I tapped the table and left…..lol. I tried to get tricky and it cost me my tournament life. Lesson learned (I hope….lol).

[steve-fredlund]

I loved this post and the analysis; what a great community helping us all get better. I’m also jealous you are playing live and in spots like this (even if second guessing!).